Football · Norway Eliteserien · 18/07, 16:00
Prediction: Lillestrom vs KFUM
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.28Total
Lillestrom2.02
KFUM1.26
1X2
Lillestrom
Draw
KFUM
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lillestrom
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
KFUM
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lillestrom
4–2
KFUM
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lillestrom 1488 · KFUM 1432
| Lillestrom | Draw | KFUM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lillestrom (rating 1488 vs 1432).
- H2H favours Lillestrom: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lillestrom | KFUM | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.6 | 2.4 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lillestrom 4–0–2 KFUM
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Europe Friendlies | Lillestrom | 7-2 HT 3-2 | KFUM |
| 25/06/25 Norway Cup | Lillestrom | 2-0 HT 0-0 | KFUM |
| 28/02/25 Europe Friendlies | Lillestrom | 0-5 HT 0-1 | KFUM |
| 30/08/24 Norway Eliteserien | KFUM | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Lillestrom |
| 27/06/24 Norway Eliteserien | Lillestrom | 2-1 HT 1-0 | KFUM |
| 09/03/24 Europe Friendlies | Lillestrom | 3-1 HT 3-0 | KFUM |
Standings · Norway Eliteserien
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tromso | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Viking FK | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Bodo/Glimt | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Molde | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 20 |
| 6 | Ham-Kam | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 18 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 17 |
| 8 | SK Brann | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 21 | 16 |
| 9 | Sandefjord | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| 10 | Fredrikstad | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 14 |
| 11 | Valerenga | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Aalesund | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 22 | 12 |
| 13 | Rosenborg | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 12 |
| 14 | KFUM | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 12 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 11 |
| 16 | IK Start | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lillestrom | KFUM |
|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Rosenborg | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Bodo/Glimt | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lillestrom
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | Sarpsborg Europe Friendlies |
3-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 26/06 | Degerfors Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Midtjylland Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/05 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 11 | L |
| 16/05 | Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
KFUM
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Vendsyssel FF Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Molde Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | SK Brann Norway Eliteserien |
0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 22/04 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lillestrom vs KFUM?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lillestrom win (54%). Probabilities: Lillestrom 54%, draw 24%, KFUM 22%.
How many goals are expected in Lillestrom vs KFUM?
The model expects 3.28 goals (Lillestrom 2.02 · KFUM 1.26), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs KFUM?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.