Football · Norway Eliteserien · 22/07, 19:00
Prediction: Lillestrom vs Viking FK
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.24Total
Lillestrom1.45
Viking FK1.79
1X2
Lillestrom
Draw
Viking FK
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lillestrom
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Viking FK
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lillestrom
2–1–3
Viking FK
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lillestrom 1500 · Viking FK 1572
| Lillestrom | Draw | Viking FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Market | 30% | 26% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viking FK (rating 1500 vs 1572).
- H2H favours Viking FK: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lillestrom | Viking FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 2.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.6 | 3.4 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lillestrom 2–1–3 Viking FK
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/24 Norway Eliteserien | Lillestrom | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Viking FK |
| 16/05/24 Norway Eliteserien | Viking FK | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Lillestrom |
| 13/08/23 Norway Eliteserien | Lillestrom | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Viking FK |
| 15/04/23 Norway Eliteserien | Viking FK | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Lillestrom |
| 26/02/23 Europe Friendlies | Viking FK | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Lillestrom |
| 09/10/22 Norway Eliteserien | Viking FK | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Lillestrom |
Standings · Norway Eliteserien
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tromso | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 31 |
| 2 | Viking FK | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Bodo/Glimt | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 12 | 25 |
| 5 | Molde | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 20 |
| 6 | SK Brann | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 22 | 19 |
| 7 | Ham-Kam | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 18 |
| 8 | Sarpsborg | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Valerenga | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 22 | 17 |
| 10 | Rosenborg | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 15 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 15 |
| 12 | Fredrikstad | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 23 | 14 |
| 13 | KFUM | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 12 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 28 | 12 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 12 |
| 16 | IK Start | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 33 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lillestrom | Viking FK |
|---|---|---|
| KFUM | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Fredrikstad | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Sarpsborg | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Kristiansund BK | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Sandefjord | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Rosenborg | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lillestrom
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | Sarpsborg Europe Friendlies |
3-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 26/06 | Degerfors Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Midtjylland Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/05 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 11 | L |
| 16/05 | Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Viking FK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 12/07 | Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | Sonderjyske Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | IK Start Norway Eliteserien |
1-3 | 6-3 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | SK Brann Norway Eliteserien |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lillestrom vs Viking FK?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Viking FK win (44%). Probabilities: Lillestrom 30%, draw 25%, Viking FK 44%.
How many goals are expected in Lillestrom vs Viking FK?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Lillestrom 1.45 · Viking FK 1.79), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Viking FK?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.