Football · Norway Eliteserien · 18/07, 18:00
Prediction: Molde vs SK Brann
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.37Total
Molde1.89
SK Brann1.47
1X2
Molde
Draw
SK Brann
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Molde
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
SK Brann
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Molde
5–1
SK Brann
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Molde 1517 · SK Brann 1469
| Molde | Draw | SK Brann | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Market | 46% | 25% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Molde (rating 1517 vs 1469).
- H2H favours Molde: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Molde | SK Brann | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.5 | 1.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 4.8 | 3.4 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Molde 5–0–1 SK Brann
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/25 Norway Eliteserien | Molde | 4-0 HT 0-0 | SK Brann |
| 29/05/25 Norway Eliteserien | SK Brann | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Molde |
| 23/11/24 Norway Eliteserien | Molde | 2-1 HT 2-0 | SK Brann |
| 26/05/24 Norway Eliteserien | SK Brann | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Molde |
| 19/03/24 Europe Friendlies | Molde | 1-0 HT 1-0 | SK Brann |
| 21/10/23 Norway Eliteserien | SK Brann | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Molde |
Standings · Norway Eliteserien
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tromso | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Viking FK | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Bodo/Glimt | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Molde | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 20 |
| 6 | Ham-Kam | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 18 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 17 |
| 8 | SK Brann | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 21 | 16 |
| 9 | Sandefjord | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| 10 | Fredrikstad | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 14 |
| 11 | Valerenga | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Aalesund | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 22 | 12 |
| 13 | Rosenborg | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 12 |
| 14 | KFUM | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 12 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 11 |
| 16 | IK Start | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Molde | SK Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Aalesund | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Rosenborg | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Bodo/Glimt | 1-4 L | 1-3 L |
| KFUM | 5-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Sarpsborg | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Kristiansund BK | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Tromso | 0-2 L | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Molde
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Aalesund Norway Eliteserien |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 05/07 | Rosenborg Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 28/06 | Bodo/Glimt Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | KFUM Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
SK Brann
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | IK Start Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | Kristiansund BK Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 29/05 | Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 20/05 | Aalesund Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | KFUM Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Cup |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Fredrikstad Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 29/04 | Tromso Norway Eliteserien |
3-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Molde vs SK Brann?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Molde win (46%). Probabilities: Molde 46%, draw 25%, SK Brann 29%.
How many goals are expected in Molde vs SK Brann?
The model expects 3.37 goals (Molde 1.89 · SK Brann 1.47), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Molde vs SK Brann?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.