Prediction: Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom
Expected goals: 2.64 (Fredrikstad 1.27 · Lillestrom 1.37). The model gives 34% home, 28% draw, 38% away. Under 2.75 goals (55%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Fredrikstad with 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses over 10 games; Lillestrom has piled up 4-0-6 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Fredrikstad and 1 for Lillestrom, with 2 draws.
| Fredrikstad | Draw | Lillestrom | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | 34% | 27% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Fredrikstad: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fredrikstad | Lillestrom | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.1 | 3 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fredrikstad 3–2–1 Lillestrom
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Europe Friendlies | Lillestrom | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Fredrikstad |
| 21/05/25 Norway Cup | Lillestrom | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Fredrikstad |
| 22/03/25 Europe Friendlies | Fredrikstad | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Lillestrom |
| 20/10/24 Norway Eliteserien | Fredrikstad | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Lillestrom |
| 20/05/24 Norway Eliteserien | Lillestrom | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Fredrikstad |
| 27/01/24 Europe Friendlies | Lillestrom | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Fredrikstad |
Standings · Norway Eliteserien
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking FK | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Tromso | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 25 |
| 3 | Bodo/Glimt | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 11 | 23 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 11 | 19 |
| 5 | Molde | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Ham-Kam | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 14 |
| 8 | Sandefjord | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| 9 | Valerenga | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 14 |
| 10 | Fredrikstad | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 14 |
| 11 | SK Brann | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 20 | 13 |
| 12 | KFUM | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 12 |
| 13 | Aalesund | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 20 | 11 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 11 |
| 15 | Rosenborg | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
| 16 | IK Start | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fredrikstad | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|
| Valerenga | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Ham-Kam | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Sandefjord | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Sarpsborg | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Kristiansund BK | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lillestrom (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fredrikstad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Valerenga Europe Friendlies |
1-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Elfsborg Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Ham-Kam Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 29/05 | IK Start Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 25/05 | Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 02/05 | SK Brann Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Viking FK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
Lillestrom
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Sarpsborg Europe Friendlies |
3-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 26/06 | Degerfors Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Midtjylland Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/05 | Ham-Kam Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | Kristiansund BK Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 11 | L |
| 16/05 | Sandefjord Norway Eliteserien |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Rosenborg Norway Eliteserien |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Sarpsborg Norway Eliteserien |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Bodo/Glimt Norway Eliteserien |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 19/04 | Valerenga Norway Eliteserien |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Lillestrom win (38%). Probabilities: Fredrikstad 34%, draw 28%, Lillestrom 38%.
How many goals are expected in Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Fredrikstad 1.27 · Lillestrom 1.37), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.