Football · Poland I Liga · 19/10, 18:00
Prediction: Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepolomice
Team pages: Termalica BB Nieciecza · Puszcza Niepolomice
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.11Total
Termalica BB Nieciecza1.86
Puszcza Niepolomice1.25
1X2
Termalica BB Nieciecza
Draw
Puszcza Niepolomice
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Termalica BB Nieciecza
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Puszcza Niepolomice
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Termalica BB Nieciecza
2–3–1
Puszcza Niepolomice
(6 last)
- Termalica BB Nieciecza2-2Puszcza Niepolomice
- Termalica BB Nieciecza1-1Puszcza Niepolomice
- Puszcza Niepolomice2-1Termalica BB Nieciecza
- Termalica BB Nieciecza3-0Puszcza Niepolomice
- Termalica BB Nieciecza2-2Puszcza Niepolomice
- Termalica BB Nieciecza2-1Puszcza Niepolomice
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Termalica BB Nieciecza 1540 · Puszcza Niepolomice 1467
| Termalica BB Nieciecza | Draw | Puszcza Niepolomice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Termalica BB Nieciecza (rating 1540 vs 1467).
- H2H favours Termalica BB Nieciecza: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Termalica BB Nieciecza | Puszcza Niepolomice | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.6 | 2.6 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Termalica BB Nieciecza 2–3–1 Puszcza Niepolomice
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/25 Europe Friendlies | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Puszcza Niepolomice |
| 12/07/24 Europe Friendlies | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Puszcza Niepolomice |
| 12/01/24 Europe Friendlies | Puszcza Niepolomice | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Termalica BB Nieciecza |
| 17/11/23 Europe Friendlies | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Puszcza Niepolomice |
| 11/06/23 Poland I Liga | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Puszcza Niepolomice |
| 12/04/23 Poland I Liga | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Puszcza Niepolomice |
Standings · Poland I Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warsaw | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Warta Poznan | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 18 |
| 4 | Ruch Chorzow | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 17 |
| 7 | Lechia Gdansk | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 16 |
| 8 | LKS Lodz | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 15 |
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 19 | 15 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszow | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 14 |
| 11 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 12 | Chrobry Glogow | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| 13 | Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 12 |
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 12 |
| 15 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 11 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Termalica BB Nieciecza | Puszcza Niepolomice |
|---|---|---|
| Unia Skierniewice | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Odra Opole | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Polonia Warsaw | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| LKS Lodz | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Warta Poznan | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| MKP Pogon Siedlce | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Puszcza Niepolomice (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Termalica BB Nieciecza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 14/09 | Stal Mielec Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 04/09 | Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | LKS Lodz Poland I Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | Warta Poznan Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/07 | Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Puszcza Niepolomice
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 11/10 | Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/09 | Warta Poznan Poland I Liga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/09 | LKS Lodz Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/08 | Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepolomice?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Termalica BB Nieciecza win (50%). Probabilities: Termalica BB Nieciecza 50%, draw 26%, Puszcza Niepolomice 24%.
How many goals are expected in Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepolomice?
The model expects 3.11 goals (Termalica BB Nieciecza 1.86 · Puszcza Niepolomice 1.25), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepolomice?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.