Football · Poland I Liga · 26/10, 18:00

Prediction: Warta Poznan vs LKS Lodz

Team pages: Warta Poznan · LKS Lodz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Warta Poznan1.26

LKS Lodz1.37

1X2

34% 28% 39%

Warta Poznan Draw LKS Lodz

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Poznan 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWWLW

LKS Lodz 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDWLLW

Head-to-head

Warta Poznan 1–5 LKS Lodz (6 last)

LKS Lodz3-1Warta Poznan
Warta Poznan2-4LKS Lodz
Warta Poznan0-1LKS Lodz
LKS Lodz0-2Warta Poznan
LKS Lodz3-0Warta Poznan
LKS Lodz3-0Warta Poznan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Poznan 1548 · LKS Lodz 1507

	Warta Poznan	Draw	LKS Lodz
Our model	33%	29%	38%
Market	34%	27%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warta Poznan (rating 1548 vs 1507).
H2H favours LKS Lodz: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Poznan	LKS Lodz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.2	2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.30

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.88 ★
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.49
2	2.38 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.31

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:22 +12’	2.60	3.20	2.38
23:17 +3’	2.63▲	3.30▲	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:16 +243’	2.84	3.42	2.37
16:40 +55’	2.90▲	3.43▲	2.33▼
02:14 +1865’	2.66▼	3.21▼	2.65▲
22:39 +16’	2.89▲	3.47▲	2.32▼
00:31 +55’	2.88▼	3.50▲	2.31▼
02:34 +60’	2.88	3.49▼	2.31

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Poznan 1–0–5 LKS Lodz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/25 Poland I Liga	LKS Lodz	3-1 HT 2-0	Warta Poznan
20/08/24 Poland I Liga	Warta Poznan	2-4 HT 0-2	LKS Lodz
11/03/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Warta Poznan	0-1 HT 0-0	LKS Lodz
01/09/23 Poland Ekstraklasa	LKS Lodz	0-2 HT 0-1	Warta Poznan
03/07/19 Europe Friendlies	LKS Lodz	3-0 HT 2-0	Warta Poznan
16/03/19 Poland I Liga	LKS Lodz	3-0 HT 2-0	Warta Poznan

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	19	9	21
2	Polonia Warsaw	11	6	2	3	18	13	20
3	Termalica BB Nieciecza	11	6	2	3	18	14	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	11	6	1	4	21	17	19
5	Warta Poznan	11	6	0	5	19	15	18
6	LKS Lodz	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
6	Ruch Chorzow	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
8	Miedz Legnica	11	5	2	4	17	10	17
9	Stal Rzeszow	11	5	2	4	15	20	17
10	Polonia Bytom	11	3	6	2	18	19	15
11	Chrobry Glogow	11	3	3	5	13	15	12
11	MKP Pogon Siedlce	11	3	3	5	13	15	12
13	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	8	12	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	3	3	5	16	27	12
15	Arka Gdynia	11	3	2	6	13	15	11
15	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	11	1	8	2	13	15	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	3	2	6	12	18	11
18	Puszcza Niepolomice	11	3	0	8	11	16	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Poznan	LKS Lodz
Stal Mielec	1-2 L	4-0 W
Puszcza Niepolomice	3-2 W	2-1 W
Arka Gdynia	3-0 W	1-1 D
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0-1 L	0-2 L
Chrobry Glogow	1-0 W	1-2 L
Odra Opole	1-3 L	0-0 D
Termalica BB Nieciecza	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Warta Poznan (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warta Poznan

WWLWLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
11/10	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	0-2	1-2	2	0	L
18/09	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	2-2	3-2	4	3	W
12/09	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	1-0	3-0	9	3	W
04/09	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
30/08	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	1-1	1-2	7	7	L
21/08	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
15/08	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-2	1-3	7	6	L
09/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
31/07	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	3-0	3-0	5	3	W

LKS Lodz

WLWWDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
11/10	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
19/09	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
11/09	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
06/09	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
28/08	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
23/08	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	1-0	4-0	5	4	W
16/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
09/08	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	1-1	1-2	10	6	L
31/07	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	2-1	2-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Poznan vs LKS Lodz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an LKS Lodz win (39%). Probabilities: Warta Poznan 34%, draw 28%, LKS Lodz 39%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Poznan vs LKS Lodz?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Warta Poznan 1.26 · LKS Lodz 1.37), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Poznan vs LKS Lodz?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.