Football · Poland I Liga · 25/10, 14:30

Prediction: Ruch Chorzow vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Team pages: Ruch Chorzow · Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Ruch Chorzow1.8

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki0.97

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Ruch Chorzow Draw Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ruch Chorzow 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWDDWW

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDDWLWWL

Head-to-head

Ruch Chorzow 1–3–0 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki (4 last)

Ruch Chorzow2-2Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki2-2Ruch Chorzow
Ruch Chorzow4-1Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki1-1Ruch Chorzow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ruch Chorzow 1540 · Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1525

	Ruch Chorzow	Draw	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Our model	56%	25%	19%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ruch Chorzow	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	2.2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.70

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.57▼	Pinn 1.61
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 4.09 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.85

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +21’	1.61	3.60	4.50
19:28 +6’	1.57▼	3.70▲	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:12 +187’	1.61	4.09	4.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ruch Chorzow 1–3–0 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Poland I Liga	Ruch Chorzow	2-2 HT 1-1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
17/10/25 Poland I Liga	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2-2 HT 1-1	Ruch Chorzow
12/03/22 Poland II Liga	Ruch Chorzow	4-1 HT 1-1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
28/08/21 Poland II Liga	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1-1 HT 0-0	Ruch Chorzow

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	19	9	21
2	Polonia Warsaw	11	6	2	3	18	13	20
3	Termalica BB Nieciecza	11	6	2	3	18	14	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	11	6	1	4	21	17	19
5	Warta Poznan	11	6	0	5	19	15	18
6	LKS Lodz	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
6	Ruch Chorzow	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
8	Miedz Legnica	11	5	2	4	17	10	17
9	Stal Rzeszow	11	5	2	4	15	20	17
10	Polonia Bytom	11	3	6	2	18	19	15
11	Chrobry Glogow	11	3	3	5	13	15	12
11	MKP Pogon Siedlce	11	3	3	5	13	15	12
13	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	8	12	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	3	3	5	16	27	12
15	Arka Gdynia	11	3	2	6	13	15	11
15	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	11	1	8	2	13	15	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	3	2	6	12	18	11
18	Puszcza Niepolomice	11	3	0	8	11	16	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ruch Chorzow	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
LKS Lodz	2-0 W	2-0 W
Polonia Bytom	0-0 D	2-2 D
Unia Skierniewice	3-1 W	2-3 L
Chrobry Glogow	0-2 L	4-0 W
Stal Rzeszow	1-0 W	1-1 D
Polonia Warsaw	1-1 D	0-1 L
Miedz Legnica	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ruch Chorzow (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ruch Chorzow

LDWWLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
11/10	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
18/09	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
12/09	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	1-1	3-3	8	5	D
07/09	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	1-0	3-1	4	0	W
30/08	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
24/08	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
14/08	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
07/08	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
02/08	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	0-0	0-2	7	4	L

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

WWDDDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/10	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	3-0	4-0	1	1	W
19/09	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
13/09	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	1-0	2-3	3	6	L
04/09	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
28/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
22/08	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
14/08	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
08/08	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
02/08	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ruch Chorzow vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ruch Chorzow win (56%). Probabilities: Ruch Chorzow 56%, draw 25%, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 19%.

How many goals are expected in Ruch Chorzow vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Ruch Chorzow 1.8 · Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 0.97), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ruch Chorzow vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.