Football · Poland I Liga · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: Odra Opole vs MKP Pogon Siedlce

Team pages: Odra Opole · MKP Pogon Siedlce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Odra Opole1.34

MKP Pogon Siedlce0.9

1X2

46% 29% 25%

Odra Opole Draw MKP Pogon Siedlce

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Odra Opole 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDLLWL

MKP Pogon Siedlce 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLWDWLLL

Head-to-head

Odra Opole 5–1–0 MKP Pogon Siedlce (6 last)

Odra Opole1-0MKP Pogon Siedlce
MKP Pogon Siedlce0-1Odra Opole
MKP Pogon Siedlce0-1Odra Opole
Odra Opole4-1MKP Pogon Siedlce
Odra Opole1-1MKP Pogon Siedlce
MKP Pogon Siedlce1-2Odra Opole

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Odra Opole 1523 · MKP Pogon Siedlce 1460

	Odra Opole	Draw	MKP Pogon Siedlce
Our model	45%	31%	24%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Odra Opole (rating 1523 vs 1460).
H2H favours Odra Opole: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Odra Opole	MKP Pogon Siedlce
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.6	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.25

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 1.97
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.34
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.81 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:47 +38’	1.90	3.25	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +365’	1.97	3.36	3.81
16:39 +48’	1.97	3.34▼	3.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Odra Opole 5–1–0 MKP Pogon Siedlce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/26 Poland I Liga	Odra Opole	1-0 HT 1-0	MKP Pogon Siedlce
03/08/25 Poland I Liga	MKP Pogon Siedlce	0-1 HT 0-0	Odra Opole
08/12/24 Poland I Liga	MKP Pogon Siedlce	0-1 HT 0-0	Odra Opole
28/07/24 Poland I Liga	Odra Opole	4-1 HT 2-0	MKP Pogon Siedlce
25/11/17 Poland I Liga	Odra Opole	1-1 HT 0-1	MKP Pogon Siedlce
05/08/17 Poland I Liga	MKP Pogon Siedlce	1-2 HT 0-1	Odra Opole

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	19	9	21
2	Polonia Warsaw	11	6	2	3	18	13	20
3	Termalica BB Nieciecza	11	6	2	3	18	14	20
4	Lechia Gdansk	11	6	1	4	21	17	19
5	Warta Poznan	11	6	0	5	19	15	18
6	LKS Lodz	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
6	Ruch Chorzow	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
8	Miedz Legnica	11	5	2	4	17	10	17
9	Stal Rzeszow	11	5	2	4	15	20	17
10	Polonia Bytom	11	3	6	2	18	19	15
11	Chrobry Glogow	11	3	3	5	13	15	12
11	MKP Pogon Siedlce	11	3	3	5	13	15	12
13	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	8	12	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	3	3	5	16	27	12
15	Arka Gdynia	11	3	2	6	13	15	11
15	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	11	1	8	2	13	15	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	3	2	6	12	18	11
18	Puszcza Niepolomice	11	3	0	8	11	16	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Odra Opole	MKP Pogon Siedlce
Termalica BB Nieciecza	0-1 L	1-2 L
Stal Rzeszow	0-1 L	3-4 L
Stal Mielec	1-1 D	2-0 W
Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	1-1 D	0-1 L
Puszcza Niepolomice	1-3 L	1-3 L
Chrobry Glogow	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Odra Opole (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Odra Opole

WLWDDDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
11/10	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/09	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
13/09	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
05/09	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/08	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
15/08	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	2-0	3-1	5	6	W
08/08	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	1-2	1-3	4	5	L
03/08	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	13	2	W

MKP Pogon Siedlce

LDWLWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-3	3-4	4	2	L
15/10	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	0-0	1-3	8	7	L
09/10	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
20/09	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/08	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
21/08	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
15/08	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
07/08	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
01/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-0	1-2	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Odra Opole vs MKP Pogon Siedlce?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Odra Opole win (46%). Probabilities: Odra Opole 46%, draw 29%, MKP Pogon Siedlce 25%.

How many goals are expected in Odra Opole vs MKP Pogon Siedlce?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Odra Opole 1.34 · MKP Pogon Siedlce 0.9), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Odra Opole vs MKP Pogon Siedlce?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.