Football · Poland I Liga · 18/10, 20:30
Prediction: Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
Team pages: Lechia Gdansk · Arka Gdynia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.27Total
Lechia Gdansk1.75
Arka Gdynia1.52
1X2
Lechia Gdansk
Draw
Arka Gdynia
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Lechia Gdansk
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Arka Gdynia
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lechia Gdansk
3–2–1
Arka Gdynia
(6 last)
- Arka Gdynia2-2Lechia Gdansk
- Lechia Gdansk1-0Arka Gdynia
- Lechia Gdansk2-1Arka Gdynia
- Arka Gdynia1-0Lechia Gdansk
- Lechia Gdansk4-3Arka Gdynia
- Arka Gdynia2-2Lechia Gdansk
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lechia Gdansk 1555 · Arka Gdynia 1494
| Lechia Gdansk | Draw | Arka Gdynia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lechia Gdansk (rating 1555 vs 1494).
- H2H favours Lechia Gdansk: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lechia Gdansk | Arka Gdynia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.6 | 1.6 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.2 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lechia Gdansk 3–2–1 Arka Gdynia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 Poland Ekstraklasa | Arka Gdynia | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Lechia Gdansk |
| 24/08/25 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lechia Gdansk | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Arka Gdynia |
| 19/05/24 Poland I Liga | Lechia Gdansk | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Arka Gdynia |
| 24/11/23 Poland I Liga | Arka Gdynia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lechia Gdansk |
| 31/05/20 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lechia Gdansk | 4-3 HT 0-0 | Arka Gdynia |
| 20/10/19 Poland Ekstraklasa | Arka Gdynia | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Lechia Gdansk |
Standings · Poland I Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warsaw | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Warta Poznan | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 18 |
| 4 | Ruch Chorzow | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 17 |
| 7 | Lechia Gdansk | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 16 |
| 8 | LKS Lodz | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 15 |
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 19 | 15 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszow | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 14 |
| 11 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 12 | Chrobry Glogow | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| 13 | Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 12 |
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 12 |
| 15 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 11 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lechia Gdansk | Arka Gdynia |
|---|---|---|
| Stal Rzeszow | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Miedz Legnica | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Polonia Warsaw | 4-2 W | 1-2 L |
| MKP Pogon Siedlce | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Warta Poznan | 0-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Lechia Gdansk (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lechia Gdansk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Stal Mielec Poland I Liga |
2-1 | 7-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 04/09 | Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 21/08 | MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 14/08 | Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 31/07 | Warta Poznan Poland I Liga |
0-3 | 0-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
Arka Gdynia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 20/09 | MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Warta Poznan Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | LKS Lodz Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 17/08 | Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/08 | Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 24/07 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lechia Gdansk win (42%). Probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 42%, draw 26%, Arka Gdynia 32%.
How many goals are expected in Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia?
The model expects 3.27 goals (Lechia Gdansk 1.75 · Arka Gdynia 1.52), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.