Football · Poland I Liga · 17/10, 15:30

Prediction: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warsaw

Team pages: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Polonia Warsaw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki1.8

Polonia Warsaw1.24

1X2

49% 25% 25%

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Draw Polonia Warsaw

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Polonia Warsaw 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 4–1–1 Polonia Warsaw (6 last)

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki3-2Polonia Warsaw
Polonia Warsaw2-1Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polonia Warsaw0-1Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polonia Warsaw0-2Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki3-3Polonia Warsaw
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki1-0Polonia Warsaw

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	Polonia Warsaw
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	3.3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.97

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 21:50

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.31 → 3.35▲	Pinn 3.35
X	3.54 → 3.48▼	Pinn 3.48
2	2.07 → 2.08▲	Pinn 2.08

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:22 +231’	3.31	3.54	2.07
19:25 +67’	3.32▲	3.49▼	2.09▲
21:01 +50’	3.35▲	3.48▼	2.08▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 4–1–1 Polonia Warsaw

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Poland I Liga	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3-2 HT 2-0	Polonia Warsaw
30/08/25 Poland I Liga	Polonia Warsaw	2-1 HT 2-1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
05/02/22 Europe Friendlies	Polonia Warsaw	0-1 HT 0-1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
15/05/21 Poland III Liga	Polonia Warsaw	0-2 HT 0-0	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
03/04/21 Poland III Liga	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3-3 HT 1-0	Polonia Warsaw
13/03/21 Poland III Liga	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1-0 HT 0-0	Polonia Warsaw

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	10	6	3	1	19	8	21
2	Polonia Warsaw	10	5	2	3	17	13	17
3	Termalica BB Nieciecza	10	5	2	3	16	14	17
4	Warta Poznan	10	5	0	5	18	15	15
5	LKS Lodz	10	4	3	3	13	11	15
6	Ruch Chorzow	10	4	3	3	11	11	15
7	Miedz Legnica	10	4	2	4	14	10	14
8	Stal Rzeszow	9	4	2	3	10	15	14
9	Lechia Gdansk	9	4	1	4	17	15	13
10	MKP Pogon Siedlce	9	3	3	3	9	8	12
11	Chrobry Glogow	10	3	3	4	11	12	12
12	Odra Opole	10	3	3	4	8	9	12
13	Polonia Bytom	10	2	6	2	15	17	12
14	Stal Mielec	10	3	3	4	16	24	12
15	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	10	1	8	1	13	14	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	3	2	5	12	13	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	10	3	2	5	12	17	11
18	Puszcza Niepolomice	9	2	0	7	8	13	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	Polonia Warsaw
Chrobry Glogow	4-0 W	2-0 W
Unia Skierniewice	2-3 L	3-1 W
Termalica BB Nieciecza	2-2 D	3-1 W
Polonia Bytom	2-2 D	2-2 D
Stal Rzeszow	1-1 D	1-2 L
Puszcza Niepolomice	1-0 W	1-0 W
Lechia Gdansk	3-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	3-0	4-0	1	1	W
19/09	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
13/09	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	1-0	2-3	3	6	L
04/09	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
28/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
22/08	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
14/08	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
08/08	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
02/08	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
25/07	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	1-0	3-0	5	1	W

Polonia Warsaw

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
19/09	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
11/09	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
05/09	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-2	1-2	2	6	L
29/08	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	1-1	2-4	6	2	L
22/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
15/08	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	13	6	L
07/08	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
01/08	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	0-1	3-1	9	5	W
26/07	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warsaw?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win (49%). Probabilities: Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 49%, draw 25%, Polonia Warsaw 25%.

How many goals are expected in Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warsaw?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1.8 · Polonia Warsaw 1.24), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warsaw?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.