Football · Poland I Liga · 18/10, 17:00
Prediction: MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszow
Team pages: MKP Pogon Siedlce · Stal Rzeszow
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
MKP Pogon Siedlce1.36
Stal Rzeszow1.22
1X2
MKP Pogon Siedlce
Draw
Stal Rzeszow
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
MKP Pogon Siedlce
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Stal Rzeszow
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
MKP Pogon Siedlce
1–2–3
Stal Rzeszow
(6 last)
- MKP Pogon Siedlce1-2Stal Rzeszow
- Stal Rzeszow1-1MKP Pogon Siedlce
- Stal Rzeszow2-4MKP Pogon Siedlce
- MKP Pogon Siedlce1-1Stal Rzeszow
- MKP Pogon Siedlce1-4Stal Rzeszow
- Stal Rzeszow3-0MKP Pogon Siedlce
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · MKP Pogon Siedlce 1474 · Stal Rzeszow 1525
| MKP Pogon Siedlce | Draw | Stal Rzeszow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stal Rzeszow (rating 1474 vs 1525).
- H2H favours Stal Rzeszow: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| MKP Pogon Siedlce | Stal Rzeszow | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 3 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · MKP Pogon Siedlce 1–2–3 Stal Rzeszow
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Poland I Liga | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Stal Rzeszow |
| 02/11/25 Poland I Liga | Stal Rzeszow | 1-1 HT 0-0 | MKP Pogon Siedlce |
| 30/03/25 Poland I Liga | Stal Rzeszow | 2-4 HT 1-2 | MKP Pogon Siedlce |
| 01/09/24 Poland I Liga | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Stal Rzeszow |
| 01/05/22 Poland II Liga | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Stal Rzeszow |
| 23/10/21 Poland II Liga | Stal Rzeszow | 3-0 HT 0-0 | MKP Pogon Siedlce |
Standings · Poland I Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warsaw | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Warta Poznan | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 18 |
| 4 | Ruch Chorzow | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Miedz Legnica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 17 |
| 7 | Lechia Gdansk | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 16 |
| 8 | LKS Lodz | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 15 |
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 19 | 15 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszow | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 14 |
| 11 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 12 | Chrobry Glogow | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| 13 | Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 12 |
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 27 | 12 |
| 15 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 11 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | MKP Pogon Siedlce | Stal Rzeszow |
|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Chrobry Glogow | 0-0 D | 1-5 L |
| Stal Mielec | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Lechia Gdansk | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Polonia Warsaw | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: MKP Pogon Siedlce (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
MKP Pogon Siedlce
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 09/10 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Stal Mielec Poland I Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 07/08 | Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | LKS Lodz Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
Stal Rzeszow
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga |
3-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 05/09 | Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 28/08 | Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 24/08 | Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 14/08 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Stal Mielec Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 1-5 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszow?
According to our model, the most likely result is a MKP Pogon Siedlce win (39%). Probabilities: MKP Pogon Siedlce 39%, draw 28%, Stal Rzeszow 33%.
How many goals are expected in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszow?
The model expects 2.59 goals (MKP Pogon Siedlce 1.36 · Stal Rzeszow 1.22), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszow?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.