Football · Poland I Liga · 03/11, 18:00

Prediction: MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzow

Team pages: MKP Pogon Siedlce · Ruch Chorzow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

MKP Pogon Siedlce0.93

Ruch Chorzow1.56

1X2

22% 26% 52%

MKP Pogon Siedlce Draw Ruch Chorzow

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

MKP Pogon Siedlce 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWLLLW

Ruch Chorzow 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDDWWW

Head-to-head

MKP Pogon Siedlce 2–4–0 Ruch Chorzow (6 last)

MKP Pogon Siedlce2-1Ruch Chorzow
Ruch Chorzow0-2MKP Pogon Siedlce
MKP Pogon Siedlce1-1Ruch Chorzow
Ruch Chorzow1-1MKP Pogon Siedlce
MKP Pogon Siedlce1-1Ruch Chorzow
Ruch Chorzow1-1MKP Pogon Siedlce

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MKP Pogon Siedlce 1507 · Ruch Chorzow 1573

	MKP Pogon Siedlce	Draw	Ruch Chorzow
Our model	21%	28%	51%
Market	23%	25%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ruch Chorzow (rating 1507 vs 1573).
H2H favours MKP Pogon Siedlce: 2-4-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MKP Pogon Siedlce	Ruch Chorzow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	2.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.60

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.22 ★
X	3.30 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.70
2	1.95 → 1.73▼	Pinn 1.77

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +6’	3.30	3.30	1.95
13:14 +2’	4.00▲	3.60▲	1.73▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:02 +21’	4.22	3.70	1.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MKP Pogon Siedlce 2–4–0 Ruch Chorzow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/26 Poland I Liga	MKP Pogon Siedlce	2-1 HT 0-1	Ruch Chorzow
08/08/25 Poland I Liga	Ruch Chorzow	0-2 HT 0-2	MKP Pogon Siedlce
17/02/25 Poland I Liga	MKP Pogon Siedlce	1-1 HT 1-1	Ruch Chorzow
02/08/24 Poland I Liga	Ruch Chorzow	1-1 HT 0-0	MKP Pogon Siedlce
01/12/21 Poland II Liga	MKP Pogon Siedlce	1-1 HT 0-0	Ruch Chorzow
30/07/21 Poland II Liga	Ruch Chorzow	1-1 HT 1-0	MKP Pogon Siedlce

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	12	6	3	3	19	11	21
2	Polonia Warsaw	12	6	3	3	19	14	21
3	Ruch Chorzow	12	6	3	3	16	11	21
4	LKS Lodz	12	6	3	3	15	11	21
5	Termalica BB Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	19	17	20
6	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	22	19	19
7	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	18	11	18
8	Warta Poznan	12	6	0	6	19	16	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	20	20	18
10	Stal Rzeszow	12	5	2	5	16	22	17
11	MKP Pogon Siedlce	12	4	3	5	14	15	15
12	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	16	16	14
13	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	12	2	8	2	15	16	14
14	Chrobry Glogow	12	3	4	5	13	15	13
15	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	16	27	13
16	Puszcza Niepolomice	12	4	0	8	13	17	12
17	Odra Opole	12	3	3	6	8	13	12
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	13	20	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MKP Pogon Siedlce	Ruch Chorzow
Odra Opole	1-0 W	3-0 W
Stal Rzeszow	3-4 L	1-0 W
Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	0-1 L	3-3 D
Chrobry Glogow	0-0 D	0-2 L
Lechia Gdansk	0-1 L	1-0 W
Polonia Warsaw	1-0 W	1-1 D
Polonia Bytom	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ruch Chorzow (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MKP Pogon Siedlce

DWLWDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
18/10	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-3	3-4	4	2	L
15/10	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	0-0	1-3	8	7	L
09/10	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
20/09	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/08	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
21/08	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
15/08	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
07/08	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-0	2-2	4	4	D

Ruch Chorzow

DWWLWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	1-0	2-0	10	1	W
16/10	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
11/10	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
18/09	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
12/09	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	1-1	3-3	8	5	D
07/09	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	1-0	3-1	4	0	W
30/08	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
24/08	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
14/08	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
07/08	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzow?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ruch Chorzow win (52%). Probabilities: MKP Pogon Siedlce 22%, draw 26%, Ruch Chorzow 52%.

How many goals are expected in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzow?

The model expects 2.49 goals (MKP Pogon Siedlce 0.93 · Ruch Chorzow 1.56), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzow?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.