Football · Poland I Liga · 02/11, 20:30

Prediction: LKS Lodz vs Polonia Warsaw

Team pages: LKS Lodz · Polonia Warsaw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

LKS Lodz1.2

Polonia Warsaw1.2

1X2

35% 29% 35%

LKS Lodz Draw Polonia Warsaw

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

LKS Lodz 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWLLWW

Polonia Warsaw 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLLDWWWD

Head-to-head

LKS Lodz 3–2–0 Polonia Warsaw (5 last)

Polonia Warsaw0-1LKS Lodz
LKS Lodz2-2Polonia Warsaw
Polonia Warsaw0-1LKS Lodz
LKS Lodz0-0Polonia Warsaw
LKS Lodz6-2Polonia Warsaw

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LKS Lodz 1526 · Polonia Warsaw 1525

	LKS Lodz	Draw	Polonia Warsaw
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours LKS Lodz: 3-2-0.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LKS Lodz	Polonia Warsaw
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6	3.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.55
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.58 ★
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:30 +20’	2.50	3.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:08 +20’	2.55	3.58	2.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · LKS Lodz 3–2–0 Polonia Warsaw

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/26 Poland I Liga	Polonia Warsaw	0-1 HT 0-1	LKS Lodz
23/08/25 Poland I Liga	LKS Lodz	2-2 HT 0-2	Polonia Warsaw
17/05/25 Poland I Liga	Polonia Warsaw	0-1 HT 0-0	LKS Lodz
08/11/24 Poland I Liga	LKS Lodz	0-0 HT 0-0	Polonia Warsaw
14/07/23 Europe Friendlies	LKS Lodz	6-2 HT 2-1	Polonia Warsaw

Standings · Poland I Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	12	6	3	3	19	11	21
2	Polonia Warsaw	12	6	3	3	19	14	21
3	Ruch Chorzow	12	6	3	3	16	11	21
4	LKS Lodz	12	6	3	3	15	11	21
5	Termalica BB Nieciecza	12	6	2	4	19	17	20
6	Lechia Gdansk	12	6	1	5	22	19	19
7	Miedz Legnica	12	5	3	4	18	11	18
8	Warta Poznan	12	6	0	6	19	16	18
9	Polonia Bytom	12	4	6	2	20	20	18
10	Stal Rzeszow	12	5	2	5	16	22	17
11	MKP Pogon Siedlce	12	4	3	5	14	15	15
12	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	16	16	14
13	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	12	2	8	2	15	16	14
14	Chrobry Glogow	12	3	4	5	13	15	13
15	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	16	27	13
16	Puszcza Niepolomice	12	4	0	8	13	17	12
17	Odra Opole	12	3	3	6	8	13	12
18	Unia Skierniewice	12	3	2	7	13	20	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LKS Lodz	Polonia Warsaw
Ruch Chorzow	0-2 L	1-1 D
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0-2 L	1-0 W
Arka Gdynia	1-1 D	2-1 W
Termalica BB Nieciecza	2-1 W	3-1 W
Chrobry Glogow	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Polonia Warsaw (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LKS Lodz

LWWDDWLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
18/10	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
11/10	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
19/09	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
11/09	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
06/09	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
28/08	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
23/08	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	1-0	4-0	5	4	W
16/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
09/08	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	1-1	1-2	10	6	L

Polonia Warsaw

DLWLLDWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
17/10	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
10/10	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
19/09	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
11/09	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
05/09	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-2	1-2	2	6	L
29/08	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	1-1	2-4	6	2	L
22/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
15/08	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	13	6	L
07/08	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LKS Lodz vs Polonia Warsaw?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LKS Lodz win (35%). Probabilities: LKS Lodz 35%, draw 29%, Polonia Warsaw 35%.

How many goals are expected in LKS Lodz vs Polonia Warsaw?

The model expects 2.4 goals (LKS Lodz 1.2 · Polonia Warsaw 1.2), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in LKS Lodz vs Polonia Warsaw?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.