Prediction: Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Team pages: Aston Villa · Arsenal
- Arsenal4-1Aston Villa
- Aston Villa2-1Arsenal
- Arsenal2-2Aston Villa
- Aston Villa0-2Arsenal
- Arsenal0-2Aston Villa
- Aston Villa1-0Arsenal
| Aston Villa | Draw | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 22% | 62% |
| Market | 16% | 23% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arsenal (rating 1515 vs 1576).
- H2H favours Aston Villa: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aston Villa | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 2.7 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aston Villa 3–1–2 Arsenal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/25 England Premier League | Arsenal | 4-1 HT 0-0 | Aston Villa |
| 06/12/25 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Arsenal |
| 18/01/25 England Premier League | Arsenal | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Aston Villa |
| 24/08/24 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Arsenal |
| 14/04/24 England Premier League | Arsenal | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Aston Villa |
| 09/12/23 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Arsenal |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Fulham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottm Forest | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 0-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Man City | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Burnley | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Fulham | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| West Ham | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Arsenal (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aston Villa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-4 | 0-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Man City England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Sunderland England Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 22/03 | West Ham England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
Arsenal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Coventry England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Fulham England Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Newcastle England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Man City England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 14/03 | Everton England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 04/03 | Brighton England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Arsenal win (62%). Probabilities: Aston Villa 16%, draw 23%, Arsenal 62%.
How many goals are expected in Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
The model expects 3.13 goals (Aston Villa 1.01 · Arsenal 2.12), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.