Football · England Premier League · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Brentford vs Sunderland

Team pages: Brentford · Sunderland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Brentford1.99

Sunderland1.1

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Brentford Draw Sunderland

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Brentford 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDLWLDDW

Sunderland 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDDWWL

Head-to-head

Brentford 2–1–1 Sunderland (4 last)

Brentford3-0Sunderland
Sunderland2-1Brentford
Sunderland0-2Brentford
Brentford3-3Sunderland

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brentford 1573 · Sunderland 1526

	Brentford	Draw	Sunderland
Our model	57%	23%	19%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brentford (rating 1573 vs 1526).
H2H favours Brentford: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brentford	Sunderland
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	2.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.05

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.02
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.59 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:14 +1’	1.61	3.90	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:14 +1’	1.67	3.86	5.05
18:19 +3’	1.59▼	4.02▲	5.59▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brentford 2–1–1 Sunderland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/01/26 England Premier League	Brentford	3-0 HT 1-0	Sunderland
30/08/25 England Premier League	Sunderland	2-1 HT 0-0	Brentford
17/02/18 England Championship	Sunderland	0-2 HT 0-2	Brentford
21/10/17 England Championship	Brentford	3-3 HT 1-3	Sunderland

Standings · England Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Hull	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
3	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
4	Everton	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
5	Brighton	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
6	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
6	Brentford	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
8	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
9	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
10	Leeds	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
11	Liverpool	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
12	Nottm Forest	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Fulham	1	0	0	1	2	3	0
15	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
16	Man Utd	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
17	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	0	4	0
17	Coventry	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
19	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
20	Tottenham	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brentford	Sunderland
Tottenham	3-0 W	1-0 W
Man Utd	1-2 L	0-0 D
Everton	2-2 D	3-1 W
Wolverhampton	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sunderland (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brentford

DDDDLWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Tottenham England Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
24/05	Liverpool England Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
17/05	Crystal Palace England Premier League	1-1	2-2	9	4	D
09/05	Man City England Premier League	0-0	0-3	2	6	L
02/05	West Ham England Premier League	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
27/04	Man Utd England Premier League	0-2	1-2	8	6	L
18/04	Fulham England Premier League	0-0	0-0	9	1	D
11/04	Everton England Premier League	1-1	2-2	2	2	D
21/03	Leeds England Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
16/03	Wolverhampton England Premier League	2-1	2-2	1	6	D

Sunderland

LWWLLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Ipswich England Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
24/05	Chelsea England Premier League	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
17/05	Everton England Premier League	0-1	3-1	2	3	W
09/05	Man Utd England Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
02/05	Wolverhampton England Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
24/04	Nottm Forest England Premier League	0-4	0-5	3	7	L
19/04	Aston Villa England Premier League	1-2	3-4	5	4	L
12/04	Tottenham England Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
22/03	Newcastle England Premier League	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
14/03	Brighton England Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brentford vs Sunderland?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Brentford win (57%). Probabilities: Brentford 57%, draw 24%, Sunderland 19%.

How many goals are expected in Brentford vs Sunderland?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Brentford 1.99 · Sunderland 1.1), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Brentford vs Sunderland?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.