Football · England Premier League · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Aston Villa vs Nottm Forest

Team pages: Aston Villa · Nottm Forest

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Aston Villa1.67

Nottm Forest1.2

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Aston Villa Draw Nottm Forest

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Aston Villa 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWWLLD

Nottm Forest 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWDLDLDD

Head-to-head

Aston Villa 3–1–2 Nottm Forest (6 last)

Aston Villa4-0Nottm Forest
Nottm Forest1-0Aston Villa
Nottm Forest1-1Aston Villa
Aston Villa3-1Nottm Forest
Aston Villa2-1Nottm Forest
Nottm Forest2-1Aston Villa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aston Villa 1512 · Nottm Forest 1509

	Aston Villa	Draw	Nottm Forest
Our model	47%	26%	26%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Aston Villa: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aston Villa	Nottm Forest
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	2.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.05

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.09 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.53
2	3.80 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:53 +5’	1.91	3.50	3.80
09:38 +4’	2.00▲	3.50	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:30 +8’	2.09	3.53	3.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aston Villa 3–1–2 Nottm Forest

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/05/26 UEFA Europa League	Aston Villa	4-0 HT 1-0	Nottm Forest
30/04/26 UEFA Europa League	Nottm Forest	1-0 HT 0-0	Aston Villa
12/04/26 England Premier League	Nottm Forest	1-1 HT 1-1	Aston Villa
03/01/26 England Premier League	Aston Villa	3-1 HT 1-0	Nottm Forest
05/04/25 England Premier League	Aston Villa	2-1 HT 2-0	Nottm Forest
14/12/24 England Premier League	Nottm Forest	2-1 HT 0-0	Aston Villa

Standings · England Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
2	Hull	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
3	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	7	5	6
5	Brentford	3	1	2	0	5	2	5
6	Liverpool	3	1	2	0	6	4	5
6	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	6	4	5
8	Everton	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
9	Leeds	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
10	Brighton	3	1	1	1	8	5	4
11	Man Utd	3	1	1	1	7	6	4
12	Sunderland	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
13	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
13	Ipswich	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
15	Bournemouth	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
16	Nottm Forest	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
17	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	0	5	1
17	Tottenham	3	0	1	2	0	5	1
19	Fulham	3	0	0	3	4	7	0
20	Coventry	3	0	0	3	0	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aston Villa	Nottm Forest
Liverpool	4-2 W	2-2 D
Burnley	2-2 D	4-1 W
Tottenham	1-2 L	0-0 D
Sunderland	4-3 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nottm Forest (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aston Villa

DWLLDWWLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Hull England Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
31/08	Arsenal England Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
23/08	Brighton England Premier League	0-4	0-4	2	6	L
24/05	Man City England Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	1	W
15/05	Liverpool England Premier League	1-0	4-2	4	4	W
10/05	Burnley England Premier League	1-1	2-2	8	2	D
03/05	Tottenham England Premier League	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
25/04	Fulham England Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
19/04	Sunderland England Premier League	2-1	4-3	4	4	W
12/04	Nottm Forest England Premier League	1-1	1-1	3	4	D

Nottm Forest

DWWWDLDLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Tottenham England Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
29/08	Liverpool England Premier League	1-0	2-2	5	6	D
22/08	Leeds England Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
24/05	Bournemouth England Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
17/05	Man Utd England Premier League	0-1	2-3	6	3	L
10/05	Newcastle England Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
04/05	Chelsea England Premier League	2-0	3-1	1	4	W
24/04	Sunderland England Premier League	4-0	5-0	6	7	W
19/04	Burnley England Premier League	0-1	4-1	4	2	W
12/04	Aston Villa England Premier League	1-1	1-1	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aston Villa vs Nottm Forest?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aston Villa win (47%). Probabilities: Aston Villa 47%, draw 27%, Nottm Forest 26%.

How many goals are expected in Aston Villa vs Nottm Forest?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Aston Villa 1.67 · Nottm Forest 1.2), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Nottm Forest?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.