Football · England Premier League · 19/09, 16:00
Prediction: Brighton vs Arsenal
Team pages: Brighton · Arsenal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Brighton0.86
Arsenal1.62
1X2
Brighton
Draw
Arsenal
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Brighton
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Arsenal
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brighton
0–2–4
Arsenal
(6 last)
- Brighton0-1Arsenal
- Arsenal2-1Brighton
- Arsenal2-0Brighton
- Brighton1-1Arsenal
- Arsenal1-1Brighton
- Brighton0-3Arsenal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brighton 1556 · Arsenal 1628
| Brighton | Draw | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 27% | 54% |
| Market | 20% | 25% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arsenal (rating 1556 vs 1628).
- H2H favours Arsenal: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brighton | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 1.7 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.7 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brighton 0–2–4 Arsenal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/26 England Premier League | Brighton | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Arsenal |
| 27/12/25 England Premier League | Arsenal | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Brighton |
| 29/10/25 England EFL Cup | Arsenal | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Brighton |
| 04/01/25 England Premier League | Brighton | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Arsenal |
| 31/08/24 England Premier League | Arsenal | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Brighton |
| 06/04/24 England Premier League | Brighton | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Arsenal |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Man City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Hull | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 5 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Everton | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Ipswich | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| 10 | Leeds | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Nottm Forest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 12 | Brighton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Man Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Fulham | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 20 | Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brighton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 3-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Aston Villa | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Newcastle | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Burnley | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brighton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-3 | 3-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Wolverhampton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 21/04 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Arsenal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 06/09 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Coventry England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Fulham England Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Newcastle England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Man City England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brighton vs Arsenal?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Arsenal win (55%). Probabilities: Brighton 19%, draw 26%, Arsenal 55%.
How many goals are expected in Brighton vs Arsenal?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Brighton 0.86 · Arsenal 1.62), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Arsenal?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.