Football · England Premier League · 20/09, 15:00
Prediction: Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Team pages: Bournemouth · Liverpool
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.79Total
Bournemouth1.7
Liverpool2.09
1X2
Bournemouth
Draw
Liverpool
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Bournemouth
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Liverpool
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bournemouth
1–5
Liverpool
(6 last)
- Bournemouth3-2Liverpool
- Liverpool4-2Bournemouth
- Bournemouth0-2Liverpool
- Liverpool3-0Bournemouth
- Bournemouth0-4Liverpool
- Bournemouth1-2Liverpool
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bournemouth 1575 · Liverpool 1530
| Bournemouth | Draw | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bournemouth (rating 1575 vs 1530).
- H2H favours Liverpool: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bournemouth | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.2 | 3.1 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bournemouth 1–0–5 Liverpool
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 England Premier League | Bournemouth | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Liverpool |
| 15/08/25 England Premier League | Liverpool | 4-2 HT 1-0 | Bournemouth |
| 01/02/25 England Premier League | Bournemouth | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Liverpool |
| 21/09/24 England Premier League | Liverpool | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Bournemouth |
| 21/01/24 England Premier League | Bournemouth | 0-4 HT 0-0 | Liverpool |
| 01/11/23 England EFL Cup | Bournemouth | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Liverpool |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Man City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Hull | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Brighton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 6 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Everton | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Ipswich | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| 10 | Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | Leeds | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Nottm Forest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Man Utd | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Fulham | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 20 | Coventry | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bournemouth | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Newcastle | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Everton | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Nottm Forest | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Fulham | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Crystal Palace | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 0 L | 2 W 4 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Bournemouth (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bournemouth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Brentford England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Newcastle England Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Everton England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 23/08 | Man City England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 19/05 | Man City England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Newcastle England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
Liverpool
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 04/09 | Ipswich England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Everton England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Liverpool win (46%). Probabilities: Bournemouth 30%, draw 24%, Liverpool 46%.
How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
The model expects 3.79 goals (Bournemouth 1.7 · Liverpool 2.09), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.