Football · England Premier League · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: Leeds vs Crystal Palace

Team pages: Leeds · Crystal Palace

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Leeds1.78

Crystal Palace1.21

1X2

49% 26% 25%

Leeds Draw Crystal Palace

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Leeds 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWLWDD

Crystal Palace 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLLLWL

Head-to-head

Leeds 1–3–2 Crystal Palace (6 last)

Crystal Palace0-0Leeds
Leeds4-1Crystal Palace
Leeds1-5Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace2-1Leeds
Crystal Palace1-1Leeds
Crystal Palace0-0Leeds

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leeds 1592 · Crystal Palace 1465

	Leeds	Draw	Crystal Palace
Our model	50%	25%	25%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leeds (rating 1592 vs 1465).
H2H favours Crystal Palace: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leeds	Crystal Palace
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.2 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.4 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	2.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 07:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.77
2	3.50 → 3.80▲	Pinn 4.39 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 3.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:59 +1’	2.00	3.50	3.50
02:24 +3’	1.95▼	3.60▲	3.70▲
07:09 +1’	1.90▼	3.60	3.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:09 +21’	1.91	3.66	4.20
21:40 +13’	1.85▼	3.72▲	4.39▲
22:26 +27’	1.85▼	3.77▲	4.39

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leeds 1–3–2 Crystal Palace

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 England Premier League	Crystal Palace	0-0 HT 0-0	Leeds
20/12/25 England Premier League	Leeds	4-1 HT 2-0	Crystal Palace
09/04/23 England Premier League	Leeds	1-5 HT 1-1	Crystal Palace
09/10/22 England Premier League	Crystal Palace	2-1 HT 1-1	Leeds
22/07/22 Elite Club Friendlies	Crystal Palace	1-1 HT 0-0	Leeds
25/04/22 England Premier League	Crystal Palace	0-0 HT 0-0	Leeds

Standings · England Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arsenal	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Man City	4	4	0	0	8	2	12
3	Hull	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
4	Brighton	4	2	1	1	13	5	7
5	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	10	9	7
6	Brentford	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
7	Liverpool	4	1	3	0	6	4	6
8	Everton	4	1	3	0	5	3	6
9	Ipswich	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
10	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	6	4	5
11	Leeds	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
12	Nottm Forest	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
13	Man Utd	4	1	1	2	7	7	4
14	Sunderland	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
15	Bournemouth	4	0	3	1	6	7	3
16	Crystal Palace	4	1	0	3	6	11	3
17	Tottenham	4	0	2	2	0	5	2
18	Fulham	4	0	1	3	4	7	1
19	Aston Villa	4	0	1	3	1	7	1
20	Coventry	4	0	0	4	0	10	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leeds	Crystal Palace
Brentford	1-1 D	2-2 D
Bournemouth	2-2 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Leeds (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leeds

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Brighton England Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
30/08	Brentford England Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
22/08	Nottm Forest England Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
24/05	West Ham England Premier League	0-0	0-3	4	3	L
17/05	Brighton England Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
11/05	Tottenham England Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
01/05	Burnley England Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	7	W
22/04	Bournemouth England Premier League	0-0	2-2	1	3	D
18/04	Wolverhampton England Premier League	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
13/04	Man Utd England Premier League	2-0	2-1	4	6	W

Crystal Palace

LLDLDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Ipswich England Premier League	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
05/09	Fulham England Premier League	1-2	3-2	1	0	W
28/08	Man City England Premier League	0-1	1-4	2	3	L
22/08	Everton England Premier League	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
24/05	Arsenal England Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
17/05	Brentford England Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
13/05	Man City England Premier League	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
10/05	Everton England Premier League	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
03/05	Bournemouth England Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
25/04	Liverpool England Premier League	0-2	1-3	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leeds vs Crystal Palace?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leeds win (49%). Probabilities: Leeds 49%, draw 26%, Crystal Palace 25%.

How many goals are expected in Leeds vs Crystal Palace?

The model expects 3 goals (Leeds 1.78 · Crystal Palace 1.21), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leeds vs Crystal Palace?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.