Football · England Premier League · 20/09, 17:30
Prediction: Fulham vs Man Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Fulham1.16
Man Utd1.61
1X2
Fulham
Draw
Man Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Fulham
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Man Utd
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fulham
1–2–3
Man Utd
(6 last)
- Man Utd3-2Fulham
- Fulham1-1Man Utd
- Man Utd1-1Fulham
- Fulham0-1Man Utd
- Man Utd1-0Fulham
- Man Utd1-2Fulham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fulham 1467 · Man Utd 1568
| Fulham | Draw | Man Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| Market | 27% | 25% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Man Utd (rating 1467 vs 1568).
- H2H favours Man Utd: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fulham | Man Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.2 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.7 | 2.5 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.2 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fulham 1–2–3 Man Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 England Premier League | Man Utd | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Fulham |
| 24/08/25 England Premier League | Fulham | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Man Utd |
| 02/03/25 England FA Cup | Man Utd | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Fulham |
| 26/01/25 England Premier League | Fulham | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Man Utd |
| 16/08/24 England Premier League | Man Utd | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Fulham |
| 24/02/24 England Premier League | Man Utd | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Fulham |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Man City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Hull | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Brighton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 6 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Everton | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Ipswich | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| 10 | Newcastle | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | Leeds | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | Nottm Forest | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Man Utd | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 3 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Fulham | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 20 | Coventry | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fulham | Man Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 0-0 D | 3-2 W |
| Sunderland | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Chelsea | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Brentford | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Man Utd (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fulham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 30/08 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 24/08 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Newcastle England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Wolverhampton England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 09/05 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
Man Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Everton England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-1 | 5-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Hull England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Brentford England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 13/04 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fulham vs Man Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Man Utd win (47%). Probabilities: Fulham 27%, draw 26%, Man Utd 47%.
How many goals are expected in Fulham vs Man Utd?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Fulham 1.16 · Man Utd 1.61), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Man Utd?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.