Football · England Premier League · 18/09, 21:00

Prediction: Brentford vs Chelsea

Team pages: Brentford · Chelsea

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Brentford1.77

Chelsea1.86

1X2

36% 25% 39%

Brentford Draw Chelsea

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Brentford 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDDWDD

Chelsea 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWLWWL

Head-to-head

Brentford 1–3–2 Chelsea (6 last)

Chelsea2-0Brentford
Brentford2-2Chelsea
Brentford0-0Chelsea
Chelsea2-1Brentford
Brentford2-2Chelsea
Chelsea0-2Brentford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brentford 1571 · Chelsea 1545

	Brentford	Draw	Chelsea
Our model	37%	24%	40%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chelsea: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brentford	Chelsea
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.60

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.87 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.86
2	2.40 → 2.25▼	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:20 +3’	2.63	3.60	2.40
21:07 +6’	2.75▲	3.70▲	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +431’	2.75	3.72	2.40
20:17 +55’	2.84▲	3.85▲	2.28▼
01:34 +45’	2.84	3.86▲	2.28
11:49 +82’	2.87▲	3.86	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brentford 1–3–2 Chelsea

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England Premier League	Chelsea	2-0 HT 1-0	Brentford
13/09/25 England Premier League	Brentford	2-2 HT 1-0	Chelsea
06/04/25 England Premier League	Brentford	0-0 HT 0-0	Chelsea
15/12/24 England Premier League	Chelsea	2-1 HT 1-0	Brentford
02/03/24 England Premier League	Brentford	2-2 HT 0-1	Chelsea
28/10/23 England Premier League	Chelsea	0-2 HT 0-0	Brentford

Standings · England Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arsenal	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Man City	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
3	Hull	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
4	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	10	9	7
5	Brentford	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
6	Liverpool	4	1	3	0	6	4	6
7	Everton	4	1	3	0	5	3	6
8	Ipswich	4	2	0	2	7	10	6
9	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	6	4	5
10	Leeds	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
11	Nottm Forest	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
12	Brighton	3	1	1	1	8	5	4
13	Man Utd	3	1	1	1	7	6	4
14	Sunderland	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
15	Bournemouth	4	0	3	1	6	7	3
16	Crystal Palace	4	1	0	3	6	11	3
17	Tottenham	4	0	2	2	0	5	2
18	Fulham	4	0	1	3	4	7	1
19	Aston Villa	4	0	1	3	1	7	1
20	Coventry	3	0	0	3	0	5	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brentford	Chelsea
Sunderland	1-1 D	1-2 L
Tottenham	3-0 W	2-1 W
Liverpool	1-1 D	1-1 D
Man City	0-3 L	0-3 L
Man Utd	1-2 L	0-1 L
Fulham	0-0 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Brentford (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brentford

DDLWLDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Sunderland England Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
30/08	Leeds England Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
22/08	Tottenham England Premier League	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
24/05	Liverpool England Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
17/05	Crystal Palace England Premier League	1-1	2-2	9	4	D
09/05	Man City England Premier League	0-0	0-3	2	6	L
02/05	West Ham England Premier League	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
27/04	Man Utd England Premier League	0-2	1-2	8	6	L
18/04	Fulham England Premier League	0-0	0-0	9	1	D
11/04	Everton England Premier League	1-1	2-2	2	2	D

Chelsea

LLLLDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Arsenal England Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
30/08	Brighton England Premier League	3-1	4-3	4	4	W
24/08	Fulham England Premier League	2-1	3-2	4	5	W
24/05	Sunderland England Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	9	L
19/05	Tottenham England Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
09/05	Liverpool England Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
04/05	Nottm Forest England Premier League	0-2	1-3	10	4	L
21/04	Brighton England Premier League	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
18/04	Man Utd England Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
12/04	Man City England Premier League	0-0	0-3	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brentford vs Chelsea?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelsea win (39%). Probabilities: Brentford 36%, draw 25%, Chelsea 39%.

How many goals are expected in Brentford vs Chelsea?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Brentford 1.77 · Chelsea 1.86), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Brentford vs Chelsea?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.