Football · England Premier League · 10/10, 13:30
Prediction: Arsenal vs Leeds
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
Arsenal1.97
Leeds0.7
1X2
Arsenal
Draw
Leeds
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Arsenal
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Leeds
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arsenal
6–0
Leeds
(6 last)
- Leeds0-4Arsenal
- Arsenal5-0Leeds
- Arsenal4-1Leeds
- Leeds0-1Arsenal
- Arsenal2-1Leeds
- Leeds1-4Arsenal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arsenal 1634 · Leeds 1558
| Arsenal | Draw | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 22% | 11% |
| Market | 67% | 21% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arsenal (rating 1634 vs 1558).
- H2H favours Arsenal: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arsenal | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.5 | 1.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.5 | 2.1 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arsenal 6–0–0 Leeds
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 England Premier League | Leeds | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Arsenal |
| 23/08/25 England Premier League | Arsenal | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Leeds |
| 01/04/23 England Premier League | Arsenal | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Leeds |
| 16/10/22 England Premier League | Leeds | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Arsenal |
| 08/05/22 England Premier League | Arsenal | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Leeds |
| 18/12/21 England Premier League | Leeds | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Arsenal |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 6 |
| 12 | Man Utd | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottm Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arsenal | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Crystal Palace | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Burnley | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| West Ham | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Newcastle | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Leeds (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arsenal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 06/09 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Coventry England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Fulham England Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Newcastle England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Leeds
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 14/09 | Newcastle England Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Brighton England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 11/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 22/04 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arsenal vs Leeds?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arsenal win (67%). Probabilities: Arsenal 67%, draw 21%, Leeds 12%.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Leeds?
The model expects 2.67 goals (Arsenal 1.97 · Leeds 0.7), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Leeds?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.