Football · England Premier League · 17/10, 16:00
Prediction: Brentford vs Liverpool
Team pages: Brentford · Liverpool
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.4Total
Brentford1.74
Liverpool1.66
1X2
Brentford
Draw
Liverpool
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Brentford
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Liverpool
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brentford
1–1–4
Liverpool
(6 last)
- Liverpool1-1Brentford
- Brentford3-2Liverpool
- Brentford0-2Liverpool
- Liverpool2-0Brentford
- Brentford1-4Liverpool
- Liverpool3-0Brentford
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brentford 1599 · Liverpool 1519
| Brentford | Draw | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brentford (rating 1599 vs 1519).
- H2H favours Liverpool: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brentford | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.9 | 2.7 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 4.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brentford 1–1–4 Liverpool
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 England Premier League | Liverpool | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Brentford |
| 25/10/25 England Premier League | Brentford | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Liverpool |
| 18/01/25 England Premier League | Brentford | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Liverpool |
| 25/08/24 England Premier League | Liverpool | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Brentford |
| 17/02/24 England Premier League | Brentford | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Liverpool |
| 12/11/23 England Premier League | Liverpool | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Brentford |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| 13 | Man Utd | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Nottm Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 15 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| 16 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 3 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brentford | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2-2 D | 2-4 L |
| Chelsea | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Bournemouth | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Crystal Palace | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brentford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 18/09 | Chelsea England Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Leeds England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Tottenham England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Man City England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Liverpool
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 04/09 | Ipswich England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brentford vs Liverpool?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Brentford win (39%). Probabilities: Brentford 39%, draw 25%, Liverpool 36%.
How many goals are expected in Brentford vs Liverpool?
The model expects 3.4 goals (Brentford 1.74 · Liverpool 1.66), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Liverpool?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.