Football · England Premier League · 18/10, 15:00
Prediction: Leeds vs Man Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Leeds1.55
Man Utd1.39
1X2
Leeds
Draw
Man Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Leeds
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Man Utd
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Leeds
1–3–2
Man Utd
(6 last)
- Man Utd1-1Leeds
- Man Utd1-2Leeds
- Leeds1-1Man Utd
- Man Utd0-0Leeds
- Man Utd2-0Leeds
- Leeds0-2Man Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leeds 1542 · Man Utd 1483
| Leeds | Draw | Man Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leeds (rating 1542 vs 1483).
- H2H favours Man Utd: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Leeds | Man Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1 | 1.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.4 | 2 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leeds 1–3–2 Man Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/26 Club Friendly List | Man Utd | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Leeds |
| 13/04/26 England Premier League | Man Utd | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Leeds |
| 04/01/26 England Premier League | Leeds | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Man Utd |
| 19/07/25 Elite Club Friendlies | Man Utd | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Leeds |
| 12/07/23 Elite Club Friendlies | Man Utd | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Leeds |
| 12/02/23 England Premier League | Leeds | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Man Utd |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Hull | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| 13 | Man Utd | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
| 15 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| 19 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 3 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Leeds | Man Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Nottm Forest | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Tottenham | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Man Utd (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leeds
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 14/09 | Newcastle England Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Brighton England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 11/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
Man Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 20/09 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Man City England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Everton England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-1 | 5-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Hull England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leeds vs Man Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Leeds win (40%). Probabilities: Leeds 40%, draw 27%, Man Utd 33%.
How many goals are expected in Leeds vs Man Utd?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Leeds 1.55 · Man Utd 1.39), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Man Utd?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.