Prediction: Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Team pages: Newcastle · Aston Villa
- Aston Villa1-3Newcastle
- Newcastle0-2Aston Villa
- Aston Villa0-0Newcastle
- Aston Villa4-1Newcastle
- Newcastle3-0Aston Villa
- Aston Villa1-3Newcastle
| Newcastle | Draw | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Newcastle: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newcastle | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.2 | 1.8 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle 3–1–2 Aston Villa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 England FA Cup | Aston Villa | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Newcastle |
| 25/01/26 England Premier League | Newcastle | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Aston Villa |
| 16/08/25 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Newcastle |
| 19/04/25 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Newcastle |
| 26/12/24 England Premier League | Newcastle | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Aston Villa |
| 30/01/24 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Newcastle |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| 13 | Man Utd | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Nottm Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 15 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| 16 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 3 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newcastle | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Hull | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Tottenham | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Liverpool | 2-2 D | 4-2 W |
| Nottm Forest | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Brighton | 3-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Arsenal | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Newcastle (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newcastle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Hull England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 14/09 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
Aston Villa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Brentford England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 19/09 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Hull England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 31/08 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-4 | 0-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Man City England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newcastle win (46%). Probabilities: Newcastle 46%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 29%.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Newcastle 1.82 · Aston Villa 1.42), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.