Football · England Premier League · 10/10, 18:30

Prediction: Man Utd vs Tottenham

Team pages: Man Utd · Tottenham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Man Utd1.94

Tottenham1.12

1X2

56% 24% 21%

Man Utd Draw Tottenham

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Man Utd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Tottenham 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Man Utd 1–1–4 Tottenham (6 last)

Man Utd2-0Tottenham
Tottenham2-2Man Utd
Tottenham1-0Man Utd
Tottenham1-0Man Utd
Tottenham4-3Man Utd
Man Utd0-3Tottenham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Man Utd 1523 · Tottenham 1476

	Man Utd	Draw	Tottenham
Our model	56%	24%	21%
Market	56%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Man Utd (rating 1523 vs 1476).
H2H favours Tottenham: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Man Utd	Tottenham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.3	3.8 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.90

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.05

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.72
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.31 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 4.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:05 +3’	1.67	3.90	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +415’	1.72	4.31	4.37
06:50 +56’	1.72	4.31	4.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Man Utd 1–1–4 Tottenham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England Premier League	Man Utd	2-0 HT 1-0	Tottenham
08/11/25 England Premier League	Tottenham	2-2 HT 0-1	Man Utd
21/05/25 UEFA Europa League	Tottenham	1-0 HT 1-0	Man Utd
16/02/25 England Premier League	Tottenham	1-0 HT 1-0	Man Utd
19/12/24 England EFL Cup	Tottenham	4-3 HT 1-0	Man Utd
29/09/24 England Premier League	Man Utd	0-3 HT 0-1	Tottenham

Standings · England Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	13	5	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	9
8	Hull	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	6
12	Man Utd	5	1	2	2	8	8	5
13	Nottm Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Man Utd	Tottenham
Everton	2-2 D	0-0 D
Nottm Forest	3-2 W	0-0 D
Brentford	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Man Utd (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Man Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Fulham England Premier League	0-0	1-1	13	3	D
13/09	Man City England Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
06/09	Everton England Premier League	0-0	2-2	3	6	D
30/08	Ipswich England Premier League	1-1	5-2	8	4	W
22/08	Hull England Premier League	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
24/05	Brighton England Premier League	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
17/05	Nottm Forest England Premier League	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
09/05	Sunderland England Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
03/05	Liverpool England Premier League	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
27/04	Brentford England Premier League	2-0	2-1	7	6	W

Tottenham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Aston Villa England Premier League	0-1	2-3	11	3	L
12/09	Everton England Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/09	Nottm Forest England Premier League	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
29/08	Newcastle England Premier League	0-0	0-2	9	3	L
22/08	Brentford England Premier League	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
24/05	Everton England Premier League	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
19/05	Chelsea England Premier League	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
11/05	Leeds England Premier League	0-0	1-1	14	4	D
03/05	Aston Villa England Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
25/04	Wolverhampton England Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Man Utd vs Tottenham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Man Utd win (56%). Probabilities: Man Utd 56%, draw 24%, Tottenham 21%.

How many goals are expected in Man Utd vs Tottenham?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Man Utd 1.94 · Tottenham 1.12), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Man Utd vs Tottenham?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.