Football · England Premier League · 17/10, 13:30
Prediction: Everton vs Chelsea
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Everton1.49
Chelsea1.84
1X2
Everton
Draw
Chelsea
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Everton
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Chelsea
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Everton
2–1–3
Chelsea
(6 last)
- Everton3-0Chelsea
- Chelsea2-0Everton
- Chelsea1-0Everton
- Everton0-0Chelsea
- Chelsea6-0Everton
- Everton2-0Chelsea
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Everton 1552 · Chelsea 1554
| Everton | Draw | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 25% | 45% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Chelsea: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Everton | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.6 | 2.2 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 5.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Everton 2–1–3 Chelsea
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 England Premier League | Everton | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Chelsea |
| 13/12/25 England Premier League | Chelsea | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Everton |
| 26/04/25 England Premier League | Chelsea | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Everton |
| 22/12/24 England Premier League | Everton | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chelsea |
| 15/04/24 England Premier League | Chelsea | 6-0 HT 4-0 | Everton |
| 10/12/23 England Premier League | Everton | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Chelsea |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| 13 | Man Utd | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Nottm Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 15 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| 16 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 3 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Everton | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Hull | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Tottenham | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Bournemouth | 1-1 D | 5-1 W |
| Sunderland | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Chelsea (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Everton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Hull England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 19/09 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 04/05 | Man City England Premier League |
0-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
Chelsea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 18/09 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 12 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Hull England Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Arsenal England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Brighton England Premier League |
3-1 | 4-3 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Fulham England Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 19/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 04/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Everton vs Chelsea?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelsea win (45%). Probabilities: Everton 30%, draw 25%, Chelsea 45%.
How many goals are expected in Everton vs Chelsea?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Everton 1.49 · Chelsea 1.84), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Chelsea?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.