Football · England Premier League · 24/10, 16:00
Prediction: Arsenal vs Everton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
Arsenal1.73
Everton0.53
1X2
Arsenal
Draw
Everton
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Arsenal
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Everton
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arsenal
4–2–0
Everton
(6 last)
- Arsenal2-0Everton
- Everton0-1Arsenal
- Everton1-1Arsenal
- Arsenal0-0Everton
- Arsenal2-1Everton
- Everton0-1Arsenal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arsenal 1652 · Everton 1511
| Arsenal | Draw | Everton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 24% | 10% |
| Market | 68% | 21% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arsenal (rating 1652 vs 1511).
- H2H favours Arsenal: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arsenal | Everton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.3 | 2.7 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arsenal 4–2–0 Everton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 England Premier League | Arsenal | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Everton |
| 20/12/25 England Premier League | Everton | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Arsenal |
| 05/04/25 England Premier League | Everton | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Arsenal |
| 14/12/24 England Premier League | Arsenal | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Everton |
| 19/05/24 England Premier League | Arsenal | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Everton |
| 17/09/23 England Premier League | Everton | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Arsenal |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 9 | Hull | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 8 |
| 13 | Man Utd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 7 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 6 |
| 16 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
| 17 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
| 18 | Nottm Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 4 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arsenal | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Chelsea | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Crystal Palace | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Arsenal (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arsenal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 06/09 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Coventry England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
Everton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Chelsea England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 11/10 | Hull England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 19/09 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arsenal vs Everton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arsenal win (67%). Probabilities: Arsenal 67%, draw 22%, Everton 11%.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Everton?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Arsenal 1.73 · Everton 0.53), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Everton?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.