Football · England Premier League · 25/10, 15:00
Prediction: Liverpool vs Brighton
Team pages: Liverpool · Brighton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
Liverpool1.65
Brighton1.31
1X2
Liverpool
Draw
Brighton
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Liverpool
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Brighton
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Liverpool
4–2
Brighton
(6 last)
- Brighton2-1Liverpool
- Liverpool3-0Brighton
- Liverpool2-0Brighton
- Brighton3-2Liverpool
- Liverpool2-1Brighton
- Brighton2-3Liverpool
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liverpool 1583 · Brighton 1608
| Liverpool | Draw | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 26% | 29% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Liverpool: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Liverpool | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 2.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.3 | 2.5 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.3 | 2.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Liverpool 4–0–2 Brighton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 England Premier League | Brighton | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Liverpool |
| 14/02/26 England FA Cup | Liverpool | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Brighton |
| 13/12/25 England Premier League | Liverpool | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Brighton |
| 19/05/25 England Premier League | Brighton | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Liverpool |
| 02/11/24 England Premier League | Liverpool | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Brighton |
| 30/10/24 England EFL Cup | Brighton | 2-3 HT 0-0 | Liverpool |
Standings · England Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 9 | Hull | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 8 |
| 13 | Man Utd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 7 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 6 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 6 |
| 17 | Coventry | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 6 |
| 18 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
| 19 | Nottm Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Liverpool | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2-4 L | 4-0 W |
| Chelsea | 1-1 D | 3-4 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liverpool
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 11/10 | Man City England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 04/09 | Ipswich England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Brighton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Arsenal England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Coventry England Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-3 | 3-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Wolverhampton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liverpool vs Brighton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Liverpool win (44%). Probabilities: Liverpool 44%, draw 26%, Brighton 29%.
How many goals are expected in Liverpool vs Brighton?
The model expects 2.96 goals (Liverpool 1.65 · Brighton 1.31), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Brighton?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.