Football · England Premier League · 02/11, 21:00

Prediction: Newcastle vs Everton

Team pages: Newcastle · Everton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Newcastle1.62

Everton1.36

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Newcastle Draw Everton

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Newcastle 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWDLWLLW

Everton 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDWDLL

Head-to-head

Newcastle 1–2–3 Everton (6 last)

Everton3-1Newcastle
Newcastle2-3Everton
Everton1-4Newcastle
Newcastle0-1Everton
Everton0-0Newcastle
Newcastle1-1Everton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newcastle 1511 · Everton 1513

	Newcastle	Draw	Everton
Our model	42%	26%	31%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Everton: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newcastle	Everton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.35 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.70
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 3.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +4’	2.20	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:04 +24’	2.26	3.70	3.06
21:49 +6’	2.36▲	3.70	2.95▼
08:17 +8’	2.35▼	3.70	2.97▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle 1–2–3 Everton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/08/26 Club Friendly List	Everton	3-1 HT 2-0	Newcastle
28/02/26 England Premier League	Newcastle	2-3 HT 1-2	Everton
29/11/25 England Premier League	Everton	1-4 HT 0-3	Newcastle
25/05/25 England Premier League	Newcastle	0-1 HT 0-0	Everton
05/10/24 England Premier League	Everton	0-0 HT 0-0	Newcastle
02/04/24 England Premier League	Newcastle	1-1 HT 1-0	Everton

Standings · England Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Man City	8	7	0	1	20	9	21
2	Arsenal	8	7	0	1	13	5	21
3	Brighton	8	5	1	2	23	7	16
4	Liverpool	8	4	3	1	11	8	15
5	Chelsea	8	4	1	3	17	15	13
6	Brentford	8	2	5	1	14	9	11
7	Leeds	8	2	5	1	9	6	11
8	Newcastle	8	3	2	3	12	14	11
9	Aston Villa	8	3	2	3	9	12	11
10	Hull	8	2	4	2	9	8	10
11	Everton	8	2	4	2	8	9	10
12	Ipswich	8	3	1	4	12	16	10
13	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	12	13	9
14	Tottenham	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
15	Fulham	8	2	2	4	8	10	8
16	Man Utd	8	1	4	3	10	13	7
17	Crystal Palace	8	2	1	5	9	19	7
18	Nottm Forest	8	1	3	4	6	10	6
19	Coventry	8	2	0	6	6	15	6
20	Sunderland	8	1	2	5	6	14	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newcastle	Everton
Crystal Palace	2-0 W	2-0 W
Hull	2-1 W	2-2 D
Bournemouth	2-2 D	1-1 D
Tottenham	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Newcastle (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newcastle

WLDWDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Crystal Palace England Premier League	0-0	2-0	4	6	W
17/10	Aston Villa England Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
12/10	Coventry England Premier League	0-1	1-4	6	2	L
19/09	Hull England Premier League	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
14/09	Leeds England Premier League	0-3	1-4	5	3	L
05/09	Bournemouth England Premier League	1-2	2-2	4	5	D
29/08	Tottenham England Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
23/08	Liverpool England Premier League	1-0	2-2	2	8	D
24/05	Fulham England Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
17/05	West Ham England Premier League	2-0	3-1	9	4	W

Everton

LLWDDDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Arsenal England Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
17/10	Chelsea England Premier League	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
11/10	Hull England Premier League	0-0	2-2	6	2	D
19/09	Ipswich England Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/09	Tottenham England Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
06/09	Man Utd England Premier League	0-0	2-2	4	6	D
29/08	Bournemouth England Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
22/08	Crystal Palace England Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
24/05	Tottenham England Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
17/05	Sunderland England Premier League	1-0	1-3	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newcastle vs Everton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newcastle win (42%). Probabilities: Newcastle 42%, draw 27%, Everton 31%.

How many goals are expected in Newcastle vs Everton?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Newcastle 1.62 · Everton 1.36), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Everton?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.