Prediction: Liverpool vs Arsenal
Team pages: Liverpool · Arsenal
- Arsenal0-0Liverpool
- Liverpool1-0Arsenal
- Liverpool2-2Arsenal
- Arsenal2-2Liverpool
- Liverpool2-1Arsenal
- Arsenal3-1Liverpool
| Liverpool | Draw | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| Market | 32% | 27% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arsenal (rating 1586 vs 1626).
- H2H favours Liverpool: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Liverpool | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.2 | 2.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Liverpool 2–3–1 Arsenal
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/26 England Premier League | Arsenal | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Liverpool |
| 31/08/25 England Premier League | Liverpool | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Arsenal |
| 11/05/25 England Premier League | Liverpool | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Arsenal |
| 27/10/24 England Premier League | Arsenal | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Liverpool |
| 01/08/24 Elite Club Friendlies | Liverpool | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Arsenal |
| 04/02/24 England Premier League | Arsenal | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Liverpool |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 13 |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 11 |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 11 |
| 10 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 9 |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| 16 | Man Utd | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 7 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 7 |
| 18 | Nottm Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6 |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Liverpool | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Nottm Forest | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Aston Villa | 2-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Arsenal (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liverpool
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Brighton England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 11/10 | Man City England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 04/09 | Ipswich England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
Arsenal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Everton England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 06/09 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Coventry England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Arsenal win (40%). Probabilities: Liverpool 32%, draw 28%, Arsenal 40%.
How many goals are expected in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Liverpool 1.15 · Arsenal 1.33), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Arsenal?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.