Football · England Premier League · 31/10, 13:30
Prediction: Chelsea vs Man Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.79Total
Chelsea2.16
Man Utd1.62
1X2
Chelsea
Draw
Man Utd
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Chelsea
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Man Utd
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chelsea
2–1–3
Man Utd
(6 last)
- Chelsea0-1Man Utd
- Man Utd2-1Chelsea
- Chelsea1-0Man Utd
- Man Utd1-1Chelsea
- Chelsea4-3Man Utd
- Man Utd2-1Chelsea
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chelsea 1535 · Man Utd 1509
| Chelsea | Draw | Man Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 22% | 28% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Man Utd: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chelsea | Man Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.8 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5 | 1.9 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelsea 2–1–3 Man Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 England Premier League | Chelsea | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Man Utd |
| 20/09/25 England Premier League | Man Utd | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Chelsea |
| 16/05/25 England Premier League | Chelsea | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Man Utd |
| 03/11/24 England Premier League | Man Utd | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Chelsea |
| 04/04/24 England Premier League | Chelsea | 4-3 HT 2-2 | Man Utd |
| 06/12/23 England Premier League | Man Utd | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Chelsea |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 13 |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 11 |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 11 |
| 10 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 9 |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| 16 | Man Utd | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 7 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 7 |
| 18 | Nottm Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6 |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chelsea | Man Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Everton | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Hull | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Brighton | 4-3 W | 3-0 W |
| Fulham | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Sunderland | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 4 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chelsea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 17/10 | Everton England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 18/09 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 12 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Hull England Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Arsenal England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Brighton England Premier League |
3-1 | 4-3 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Fulham England Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 19/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
Man Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Leeds England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 20/09 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Man City England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Everton England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-1 | 5-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Hull England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chelsea vs Man Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelsea win (48%). Probabilities: Chelsea 48%, draw 24%, Man Utd 27%.
How many goals are expected in Chelsea vs Man Utd?
The model expects 3.79 goals (Chelsea 2.16 · Man Utd 1.62), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Man Utd?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.