Prediction: Man Utd vs Aston Villa
Team pages: Man Utd · Aston Villa
- Man Utd3-1Aston Villa
- Aston Villa2-1Man Utd
- Man Utd2-0Aston Villa
- Aston Villa0-0Man Utd
- Aston Villa1-2Man Utd
- Man Utd3-2Aston Villa
| Man Utd | Draw | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aston Villa (rating 1470 vs 1546).
- H2H favours Man Utd: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Man Utd | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.8 | 2.2 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Man Utd 4–1–1 Aston Villa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 England Premier League | Man Utd | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Aston Villa |
| 21/12/25 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Man Utd |
| 25/05/25 England Premier League | Man Utd | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Aston Villa |
| 06/10/24 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Man Utd |
| 11/02/24 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Man Utd |
| 26/12/23 England Premier League | Man Utd | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Aston Villa |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 27 |
| 2 | Man City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 16 |
| 5 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 7 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 14 |
| 8 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| 13 | Hull | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 9 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
| 18 | Man Utd | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 7 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 7 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Man Utd | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Fulham | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Man City | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Hull | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Brighton | 3-0 W | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Aston Villa (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Man Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Chelsea England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 25/10 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | Leeds England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 20/09 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Man City England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Everton England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-1 | 5-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Hull England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
Aston Villa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Fulham England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 24/10 | Man City England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 17/10 | Newcastle England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 10/10 | Brentford England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 19/09 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Hull England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 31/08 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-4 | 0-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Man City England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Man Utd vs Aston Villa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Man Utd win (45%). Probabilities: Man Utd 45%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 30%.
How many goals are expected in Man Utd vs Aston Villa?
The model expects 3.08 goals (Man Utd 1.71 · Aston Villa 1.37), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Man Utd vs Aston Villa?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.