Football · England Premier League · 08/11, 15:00
Prediction: Brighton vs Brentford
Team pages: Brighton · Brentford
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
Brighton1.78
Brentford1.18
1X2
Brighton
Draw
Brentford
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Brighton
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Brentford
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Brighton
3–2–1
Brentford
(6 last)
- Brentford0-2Brighton
- Brighton2-1Brentford
- Brentford4-2Brighton
- Brighton0-0Brentford
- Brentford0-0Brighton
- Brighton2-1Brentford
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brighton 1609 · Brentford 1511
| Brighton | Draw | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brighton (rating 1609 vs 1511).
- H2H favours Brighton: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brighton | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.4 | 2.1 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brighton 3–2–1 Brentford
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 England Premier League | Brentford | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Brighton |
| 22/11/25 England Premier League | Brighton | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Brentford |
| 19/04/25 England Premier League | Brentford | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Brighton |
| 27/12/24 England Premier League | Brighton | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Brentford |
| 03/04/24 England Premier League | Brentford | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Brighton |
| 06/12/23 England Premier League | Brighton | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Brentford |
Standings · England Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 27 |
| 2 | Man City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 16 |
| 5 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 7 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 14 |
| 8 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| 13 | Hull | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| 16 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
| 17 | Man Utd | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 7 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 7 |
| 19 | Nottm Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brighton | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Sunderland | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Leeds | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Chelsea | 3-4 L | 3-0 W |
| Aston Villa | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brighton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Man City England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/10 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Arsenal England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Coventry England Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-3 | 3-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
Brentford
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/10 | Hull England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 17/10 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 10/10 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 18/09 | Chelsea England Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Leeds England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Tottenham England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brighton vs Brentford?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Brighton win (51%). Probabilities: Brighton 51%, draw 25%, Brentford 24%.
How many goals are expected in Brighton vs Brentford?
The model expects 2.96 goals (Brighton 1.78 · Brentford 1.18), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Brentford?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.