Football · England Premier League · 07/11, 18:30
Prediction: Nottm Forest vs Man City
Team pages: Nottm Forest · Man City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Nottm Forest1.04
Man City1.84
1X2
Nottm Forest
Draw
Man City
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Nottm Forest
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Man City
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nottm Forest
1–1–4
Man City
(6 last)
- Man City2-2Nottm Forest
- Nottm Forest1-2Man City
- Nottm Forest0-2Man City
- Nottm Forest1-0Man City
- Man City3-0Nottm Forest
- Nottm Forest0-2Man City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nottm Forest 1437 · Man City 1560
| Nottm Forest | Draw | Man City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Man City (rating 1437 vs 1560).
- H2H favours Man City: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nottm Forest | Man City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.3 | 2.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.8 | 3.4 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nottm Forest 1–1–4 Man City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/26 England Premier League | Man City | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Nottm Forest |
| 27/12/25 England Premier League | Nottm Forest | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Man City |
| 27/04/25 England FA Cup | Nottm Forest | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Man City |
| 08/03/25 England Premier League | Nottm Forest | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Man City |
| 04/12/24 England Premier League | Man City | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Nottm Forest |
| 28/04/24 England Premier League | Nottm Forest | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Man City |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 24 |
| 2 | Man City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 16 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 14 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 8 | Tottenham | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| 10 | Hull | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| 11 | Leeds | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| 13 | Ipswich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 11 |
| 14 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 15 | Fulham | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 16 | Coventry | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 9 |
| 17 | Man Utd | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 7 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 7 |
| 19 | Nottm Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nottm Forest | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Crystal Palace | 1-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Coventry | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Aston Villa | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Liverpool | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Bournemouth | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 2 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Man City (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nottm Forest
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/10 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/10 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 11/10 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Coventry England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
Man City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 17/10 | Ipswich England Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Sunderland England Premier League |
3-2 | 5-3 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Coventry England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nottm Forest vs Man City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Man City win (55%). Probabilities: Nottm Forest 20%, draw 24%, Man City 55%.
How many goals are expected in Nottm Forest vs Man City?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Nottm Forest 1.04 · Man City 1.84), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Nottm Forest vs Man City?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.