Football · England Premier League · 08/11, 15:00
Prediction: Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Team pages: Crystal Palace · Liverpool
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
Crystal Palace1.04
Liverpool2.08
1X2
Crystal Palace
Draw
Liverpool
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Crystal Palace
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Liverpool
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crystal Palace
2–2–2
Liverpool
(6 last)
- Liverpool3-1Crystal Palace
- Liverpool0-3Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace2-1Liverpool
- Crystal Palace2-2Liverpool
- Liverpool1-1Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace0-1Liverpool
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crystal Palace 1429 · Liverpool 1553
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 22% | 60% |
| Market | 17% | 22% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liverpool (rating 1429 vs 1553).
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crystal Palace | Liverpool | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.3 | 1.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.2 | 3.5 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crystal Palace 2–2–2 Liverpool
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 England Premier League | Liverpool | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Crystal Palace |
| 29/10/25 England EFL Cup | Liverpool | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Crystal Palace |
| 27/09/25 England Premier League | Crystal Palace | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Liverpool |
| 10/08/25 Community Shield | Crystal Palace | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Liverpool |
| 25/05/25 England Premier League | Liverpool | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Crystal Palace |
| 05/10/24 England Premier League | Crystal Palace | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Liverpool |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 27 |
| 2 | Man City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 16 |
| 5 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 7 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 14 |
| 8 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 14 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| 13 | Hull | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| 16 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
| 17 | Man Utd | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 7 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 7 |
| 19 | Nottm Forest | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crystal Palace | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Brighton | 0-5 L | 2-0 W |
| Nottm Forest | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Ipswich | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Fulham | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Man City | 1-4 L | 0-3 L |
| Arsenal | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 5 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Liverpool (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crystal Palace
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/10 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 18/10 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 11/10 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Ipswich England Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Fulham England Premier League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 28/08 | Man City England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Everton England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
Liverpool
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 25/10 | Brighton England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 11/10 | Man City England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 04/09 | Ipswich England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Liverpool win (61%). Probabilities: Crystal Palace 17%, draw 22%, Liverpool 61%.
How many goals are expected in Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
The model expects 3.12 goals (Crystal Palace 1.04 · Liverpool 2.08), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.