Football · England Premier League · 30/08, 15:00
Prediction: Chelsea vs Brighton
Team pages: Brighton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Chelsea1.65
Brighton1.2
1X2
Chelsea
Draw
Brighton
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Chelsea
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Brighton
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chelsea
2–4
Brighton
(6 last)
- Brighton3-0Chelsea
- Chelsea1-3Brighton
- Brighton3-0Chelsea
- Brighton2-1Chelsea
- Chelsea4-2Brighton
- Brighton1-2Chelsea
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chelsea 1455 · Brighton 1573
| Chelsea | Draw | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brighton (rating 1455 vs 1573).
- H2H favours Brighton: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chelsea | Brighton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.9 | 1.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.8 | 2.2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelsea 2–0–4 Brighton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/26 England Premier League | Brighton | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Chelsea |
| 27/09/25 England Premier League | Chelsea | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Brighton |
| 14/02/25 England Premier League | Brighton | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Chelsea |
| 08/02/25 England FA Cup | Brighton | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Chelsea |
| 28/09/24 England Premier League | Chelsea | 4-2 HT 4-2 | Brighton |
| 15/05/24 England Premier League | Brighton | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Chelsea |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottm Forest | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chelsea | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Tottenham | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Liverpool | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Man Utd | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Newcastle | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Aston Villa | 4-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chelsea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 19/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 04/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Man City England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/03 | Everton England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 14/03 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 04/03 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
Brighton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Wolverhampton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 21/04 | Chelsea England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 21/03 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 14/03 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chelsea vs Brighton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelsea win (47%). Probabilities: Chelsea 47%, draw 26%, Brighton 27%.
How many goals are expected in Chelsea vs Brighton?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Chelsea 1.65 · Brighton 1.2), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Brighton?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.