Football · England Premier League · 28/08, 21:00
Prediction: Crystal Palace vs Man City
Team pages: Crystal Palace · Man City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
Crystal Palace0.9
Man City1.84
1X2
Crystal Palace
Draw
Man City
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Crystal Palace
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Man City
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crystal Palace
1–1–4
Man City
(6 last)
- Man City3-0Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace0-3Man City
- Crystal Palace1-0Man City
- Man City5-2Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace2-2Man City
- Crystal Palace2-4Man City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crystal Palace 1460 · Man City 1574
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Man City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 25% | 58% |
| Market | 18% | 23% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Man City (rating 1460 vs 1574).
- H2H favours Man City: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crystal Palace | Man City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.8 | 2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.9 | 4.6 / 9.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crystal Palace 1–1–4 Man City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 England Premier League | Man City | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Crystal Palace |
| 14/12/25 England Premier League | Crystal Palace | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Man City |
| 17/05/25 England FA Cup | Crystal Palace | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Man City |
| 12/04/25 England Premier League | Man City | 5-2 HT 2-2 | Crystal Palace |
| 07/12/24 England Premier League | Crystal Palace | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Man City |
| 06/04/24 England Premier League | Crystal Palace | 2-4 HT 1-1 | Man City |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Hull | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Man City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Newcastle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Nottm Forest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Man Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Coventry | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crystal Palace | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | 0-2 L | 3-3 D |
| Arsenal | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Brentford | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Bournemouth | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| West Ham | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Man City (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crystal Palace
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Everton England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Brentford England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | Man City England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Everton England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 20/04 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 15/03 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
Man City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 19/05 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 13/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 04/05 | Everton England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-3 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 22/04 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 19/04 | Arsenal England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Chelsea England Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 14/03 | West Ham England Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 15 | 4 | D |
| 04/03 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crystal Palace vs Man City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Man City win (59%). Probabilities: Crystal Palace 17%, draw 24%, Man City 59%.
How many goals are expected in Crystal Palace vs Man City?
The model expects 2.75 goals (Crystal Palace 0.9 · Man City 1.84), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Man City?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.