Football · England Premier League · 30/08, 15:00
Prediction: Leeds vs Brentford
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
Leeds1.31
Brentford1.34
1X2
Leeds
Draw
Brentford
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Leeds
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Brentford
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Leeds
1–4–1
Brentford
(6 last)
- Leeds0-0Brentford
- Brentford1-1Leeds
- Leeds0-0Brentford
- Brentford5-2Leeds
- Brentford1-2Leeds
- Leeds2-2Brentford
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leeds 1586 · Brentford 1544
| Leeds | Draw | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leeds (rating 1586 vs 1544).
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Leeds | Brentford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.9 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leeds 1–4–1 Brentford
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 England Premier League | Leeds | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Brentford |
| 14/12/25 England Premier League | Brentford | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Leeds |
| 22/01/23 England Premier League | Leeds | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Brentford |
| 03/09/22 England Premier League | Brentford | 5-2 HT 2-1 | Leeds |
| 22/05/22 England Premier League | Brentford | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Leeds |
| 05/12/21 England Premier League | Leeds | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Brentford |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottm Forest | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Leeds | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 0-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Tottenham | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Wolverhampton | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Man Utd | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Crystal Palace | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leeds
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 11/05 | Tottenham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 22/04 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Wolverhampton England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 13/04 | Man Utd England Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 21/03 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 15/03 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
Brentford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Tottenham England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Man City England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Fulham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 11/04 | Everton England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 21/03 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 16/03 | Wolverhampton England Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leeds vs Brentford?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Brentford win (37%). Probabilities: Leeds 35%, draw 28%, Brentford 37%.
How many goals are expected in Leeds vs Brentford?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Leeds 1.31 · Brentford 1.34), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Brentford?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.