Football · England Premier League · 24/10, 13:30
Prediction: Aston Villa vs Man City
Team pages: Aston Villa · Man City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Aston Villa1.2
Man City1.99
1X2
Aston Villa
Draw
Man City
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Aston Villa
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Man City
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aston Villa
4–2
Man City
(6 last)
- Man City1-2Aston Villa
- Aston Villa1-0Man City
- Man City2-1Aston Villa
- Aston Villa2-1Man City
- Man City4-1Aston Villa
- Aston Villa1-0Man City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aston Villa 1576 · Man City 1588
| Aston Villa | Draw | Man City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 24% | 55% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Aston Villa: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aston Villa | Man City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.6 | 2.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.8 | 3.4 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aston Villa 4–0–2 Man City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 England Premier League | Man City | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Aston Villa |
| 26/10/25 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Man City |
| 22/04/25 England Premier League | Man City | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Aston Villa |
| 21/12/24 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Man City |
| 03/04/24 England Premier League | Man City | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Aston Villa |
| 06/12/23 England Premier League | Aston Villa | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Man City |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Brentford | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 9 | Hull | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 8 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 8 |
| 13 | Man Utd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 7 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 6 |
| 16 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
| 17 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
| 18 | Nottm Forest | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 4 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aston Villa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Newcastle England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 10/10 | Brentford England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 19/09 | Tottenham England Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Hull England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 31/08 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-4 | 0-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Man City England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Liverpool England Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
Man City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Ipswich England Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Sunderland England Premier League |
3-2 | 5-3 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Coventry England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 19/05 | Bournemouth England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 13/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aston Villa vs Man City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Man City win (55%). Probabilities: Aston Villa 21%, draw 24%, Man City 55%.
How many goals are expected in Aston Villa vs Man City?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Aston Villa 1.2 · Man City 1.99), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Man City?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.