Football · England Premier League · 31/10, 16:00
Prediction: Bournemouth vs Leeds
Team pages: Bournemouth · Leeds
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Bournemouth1.52
Leeds1.16
1X2
Bournemouth
Draw
Leeds
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Bournemouth
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Leeds
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bournemouth
1–2–3
Leeds
(6 last)
- Bournemouth2-2Leeds
- Leeds2-2Bournemouth
- Bournemouth4-1Leeds
- Leeds4-3Bournemouth
- Leeds1-0Bournemouth
- Bournemouth1-3Leeds
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bournemouth 1550 · Leeds 1529
| Bournemouth | Draw | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Leeds: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bournemouth | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.7 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bournemouth 1–2–3 Leeds
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 England Premier League | Bournemouth | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Leeds |
| 27/09/25 England Premier League | Leeds | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Bournemouth |
| 30/04/23 England Premier League | Bournemouth | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Leeds |
| 05/11/22 England Premier League | Leeds | 4-3 HT 1-2 | Bournemouth |
| 20/01/15 England Championship | Leeds | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Bournemouth |
| 16/09/14 England Championship | Bournemouth | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Leeds |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 15 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 13 |
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 11 |
| 7 | Leeds | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 11 |
| 10 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| 11 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 12 | Ipswich | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 9 |
| 14 | Tottenham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| 15 | Fulham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| 16 | Man Utd | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 7 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 7 |
| 18 | Nottm Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6 |
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bournemouth | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Man Utd | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Sunderland | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Brentford | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Newcastle | 2-2 D | 4-1 W |
| Nottm Forest | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 0 L | 2 W 3 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bournemouth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Man Utd England Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/10 | Sunderland England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 10/10 | Chelsea England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Liverpool England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Brentford England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Newcastle England Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Everton England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 23/08 | Man City England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 19/05 | Man City England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
Leeds
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Sunderland England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Man Utd England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 14/09 | Newcastle England Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Brighton England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Nottm Forest England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Brighton England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bournemouth vs Leeds?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bournemouth win (44%). Probabilities: Bournemouth 44%, draw 28%, Leeds 28%.
How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs Leeds?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Bournemouth 1.52 · Leeds 1.16), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Leeds?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.