Football · England Premier League · 21/08, 21:00
Prediction: Arsenal vs Coventry
Team pages: Arsenal
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
Arsenal2.3
Coventry0.42
1X2
Arsenal
Draw
Coventry
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Arsenal
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Coventry
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arsenal 1522 · Coventry 1573
| Arsenal | Draw | Coventry | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 16% | 5% |
| Market | 81% | 13% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coventry (rating 1522 vs 1573).
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arsenal | Coventry | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 2.1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.5 | 1.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
Standings · England Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brentford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Coventry | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Crystal Palace | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Everton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hull | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ipswich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leeds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Man City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Man Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Newcastle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nottm Forest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sunderland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tottenham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arsenal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Como Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 09/08 | Borussia Dortmund Emirates Cup |
0-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 05/08 | Real Betis Elite Club Friendlies |
1-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Girona Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | PSG UEFA Champions League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Crystal Palace England Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/05 | Burnley England Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | West Ham England Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 05/05 | Atletico Madrid UEFA Champions League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Fulham England Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
Coventry
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Monaco Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 08/08 | Espanyol Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Northampton Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Watford England Championship |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Wrexham England Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/04 | Portsmouth England Championship |
1-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 17/04 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Sheff Wed England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 06/04 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 03/04 | Derby England Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arsenal vs Coventry?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arsenal win (80%). Probabilities: Arsenal 80%, draw 14%, Coventry 6%.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Coventry?
The model expects 2.72 goals (Arsenal 2.3 · Coventry 0.42), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Coventry?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.