Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 21/08, 17:30

Prediction: FK BE1 vs FK Garliava

Team pages: FK BE1 · FK Garliava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

FK BE11.3

FK Garliava1.04

1X2

43% 28% 30%

FK BE1 Draw FK Garliava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK BE1 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWLLLW

FK Garliava 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

FK BE1 3–3–0 FK Garliava (6 last)

FK Garliava2-2FK BE1
FK Garliava2-2FK BE1
FK BE12-1FK Garliava
FK Garliava0-3FK BE1
FK Garliava1-2FK BE1
FK BE11-1FK Garliava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK BE1 1500 · FK Garliava 1430

	FK BE1	Draw	FK Garliava
Our model	41%	30%	28%
Market	44%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK BE1 (rating 1500 vs 1430).
H2H favours FK BE1: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK BE1	FK Garliava
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	0.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:05 +3’	2.05	3.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK BE1 3–3–0 FK Garliava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	2-2 HT 2-2	FK BE1
28/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	2-2 HT 0-1	FK BE1
11/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Garliava
12/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	0-3 HT 0-1	FK BE1
06/05/23 Lithuania Cup	FK Garliava	1-2 HT 1-0	FK BE1
26/03/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK BE1	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Garliava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
2	FK Babrungas	20	16	3	1	36	6	51
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	20	12	2	6	27	24	38
4	FK Tauras	20	12	2	6	36	22	38
5	FK BE1	19	11	2	6	31	24	35
6	DFK Dainava	19	10	5	4	32	18	35
7	BFA Vilnius	20	10	2	8	29	29	32
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	20	9	4	7	31	28	31
9	FK Atmosfera	19	7	4	8	29	24	25
10	Lietava Jonava	20	6	5	9	24	26	23
11	FK Garliava	19	6	4	9	23	20	22
12	FK Transinvest II	20	5	3	12	20	46	18
13	FC Hegelmann II	20	5	1	14	21	45	16
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
15	FK Ekranas	20	3	2	15	19	42	11
16	FK Siauliai II	20	2	5	13	18	45	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK BE1	FK Garliava
FC Hegelmann II	2-1 W	1-3 L
FK Minija	0-3 L	0-1 L
Lietava Jonava	0-2 L	0-1 L
FK Atmosfera	1-0 W	1-1 D
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	2-1 W	1-2 L
FK Tauras	1-0 W	0-1 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-1 L	0-1 L
DFK Dainava	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: FK BE1 (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK BE1

WLWLWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
08/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	0	3	L
31/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
26/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	9	4	L
01/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	10	5	W
26/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	10	1	W
19/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
12/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
30/05	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
22/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

FK Garliava

DDLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	4	5	L
01/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
26/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
19/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
13/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
08/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
29/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
23/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK BE1 vs FK Garliava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK BE1 win (43%). Probabilities: FK BE1 43%, draw 28%, FK Garliava 30%.

How many goals are expected in FK BE1 vs FK Garliava?

The model expects 2.34 goals (FK BE1 1.3 · FK Garliava 1.04), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK BE1 vs FK Garliava?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.