Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Atmosfera

Team pages: FK Neptunas Klaipeda · FK Atmosfera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1.52

FK Atmosfera1.35

1X2

41% 26% 33%

FK Neptunas Klaipeda Draw FK Atmosfera

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWWWLL

FK Atmosfera 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWLDLD

Head-to-head

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 4–2 FK Atmosfera (6 last)

FK Atmosfera1-3FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Atmosfera4-2FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda1-0FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera1-0FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda2-0FK Atmosfera
FK Neptunas Klaipeda4-2FK Atmosfera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1540 · FK Atmosfera 1474

	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	Draw	FK Atmosfera
Our model	40%	27%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda (rating 1540 vs 1474).
H2H favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	FK Atmosfera
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.2	2.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +5’	2.20	3.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 4–0–2 FK Atmosfera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-3 HT 0-1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
27/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	4-2 HT 1-1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
23/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera
03/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
08/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Atmosfera
12/11/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	4-2 HT 3-2	FK Atmosfera

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	21	16	4	1	37	7	52
2	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
3	FK Tauras	21	12	3	6	37	23	39
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	21	12	2	7	27	26	38
5	FK BE1	20	12	2	6	33	24	38
6	DFK Dainava	20	10	6	4	33	19	36
7	BFA Vilnius	21	11	2	8	31	29	35
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	21	10	4	7	35	31	34
9	FK Atmosfera	20	7	5	8	30	25	26
10	Lietava Jonava	21	6	5	10	24	27	23
11	FK Garliava	20	6	4	10	23	22	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	21	6	1	14	24	47	19
13	FK Transinvest II	21	5	3	13	23	50	18
14	FK Siauliai II	21	3	5	13	19	45	14
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
16	FK Ekranas	21	3	2	16	21	45	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	FK Atmosfera
FK Siauliai II	2-1 W	1-1 D
FK Transinvest II	2-2 D	0-2 L
DFK Dainava	0-1 L	1-1 D
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-1 W	1-3 L
FK Ekranas	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Neptunas Klaipeda (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

WWWLDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	10	5	L
15/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
08/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
01/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
25/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
27/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
18/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
10/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
05/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	5	10	W

FK Atmosfera

WDLWLWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
14/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
08/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
01/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	5	3	L
25/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
01/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
27/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
20/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
12/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
30/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Atmosfera?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Neptunas Klaipeda win (41%). Probabilities: FK Neptunas Klaipeda 41%, draw 26%, FK Atmosfera 33%.

How many goals are expected in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Atmosfera?

The model expects 2.87 goals (FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1.52 · FK Atmosfera 1.35), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Atmosfera?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.