Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 29/08, 17:00

Prediction: FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FC Hegelmann II

Team pages: FK Kauno Zalgiris II · FC Hegelmann II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

FK Kauno Zalgiris II1.62

FC Hegelmann II1.37

1X2

43% 25% 32%

FK Kauno Zalgiris II Draw FC Hegelmann II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLLWLW

FC Hegelmann II 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLWLW

Head-to-head

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 4–2 FC Hegelmann II (6 last)

FC Hegelmann II2-0FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FC Hegelmann II1-5FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II2-0FC Hegelmann II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-2FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II0-3FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FC Hegelmann II0-5FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1462 · FC Hegelmann II 1470

	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	Draw	FC Hegelmann II
Our model	42%	26%	31%
Market	43%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Kauno Zalgiris II: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	FC Hegelmann II
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:18 +4’	2.05	3.70	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 4–0–2 FC Hegelmann II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
16/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	1-5 HT 0-4	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
18/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Hegelmann II
16/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Hegelmann II
29/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
10/06/22 Lithuania II Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	0-5 HT 0-2	FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	21	16	4	1	37	7	52
2	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
3	FK Tauras	21	12	3	6	37	23	39
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	21	12	2	7	27	26	38
5	FK BE1	20	12	2	6	33	24	38
6	DFK Dainava	20	10	6	4	33	19	36
7	BFA Vilnius	21	11	2	8	31	29	35
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	21	10	4	7	35	31	34
9	FK Atmosfera	20	7	5	8	30	25	26
10	Lietava Jonava	21	6	5	10	24	27	23
11	FK Garliava	20	6	4	10	23	22	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	21	6	1	14	24	47	19
13	FK Transinvest II	21	5	3	13	23	50	18
14	FK Siauliai II	21	3	5	13	19	45	14
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
16	FK Ekranas	21	3	2	16	21	45	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	FC Hegelmann II
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-2 L	0-2 L
FK Atmosfera	3-1 W	1-4 L
FK Babrungas	0-2 L	0-1 L
BFA Vilnius	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

WLLDLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
10/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
01/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
24/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-4	4	4	L
19/07	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
28/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
24/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
18/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
12/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
30/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	1	1	W

FC Hegelmann II

LWWLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	10	2	W
14/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
07/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	2	5	W
31/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-4	1	1	L
25/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
21/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
02/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	11	4	L
27/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
20/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
12/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FC Hegelmann II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Kauno Zalgiris II win (43%). Probabilities: FK Kauno Zalgiris II 43%, draw 25%, FC Hegelmann II 32%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model expects 2.99 goals (FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1.62 · FC Hegelmann II 1.37), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.