Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 28/08, 18:00

Prediction: FK Siauliai II vs FK Minija

Team pages: FK Siauliai II · FK Minija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

FK Siauliai II0.53

FK Minija2.29

1X2

7% 16% 77%

FK Siauliai II Draw FK Minija

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 16%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Siauliai II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWDLW

FK Minija 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

FK Siauliai II 3–3 FK Minija (6 last)

FK Minija3-1FK Siauliai II
FK Minija0-2FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II4-0FK Minija
FK Minija0-2FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II0-1FK Minija
FK Minija2-1FK Siauliai II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Siauliai II 1449 · FK Minija 1583

	FK Siauliai II	Draw	FK Minija
Our model	6%	17%	77%
Market	8%	15%	78%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1449 vs 1583).
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Siauliai II	FK Minija
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.9 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.7	4.8 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

112.00

X6.25

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.98

2 (-2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:07 +2’	12.00	6.25	1.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Siauliai II 3–0–3 FK Minija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	3-1 HT 0-0	FK Siauliai II
04/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-2 HT 0-2	FK Siauliai II
30/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	4-0 HT 2-0	FK Minija
10/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Siauliai II
16/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Minija
23/09/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-1 HT 2-0	FK Siauliai II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	21	16	4	1	37	7	52
2	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
3	FK Tauras	21	12	3	6	37	23	39
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	21	12	2	7	27	26	38
5	FK BE1	20	12	2	6	33	24	38
6	DFK Dainava	20	10	6	4	33	19	36
7	BFA Vilnius	21	11	2	8	31	29	35
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	21	10	4	7	35	31	34
9	FK Atmosfera	20	7	5	8	30	25	26
10	Lietava Jonava	21	6	5	10	24	27	23
11	FK Garliava	20	6	4	10	23	22	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	21	6	1	14	24	47	19
13	FK Transinvest II	21	5	3	13	23	50	18
14	FK Siauliai II	21	3	5	13	19	45	14
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
16	FK Ekranas	21	3	2	16	21	45	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Siauliai II	FK Minija
Lietava Jonava	1-0 W	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-4 L	0-1 L
FK Atmosfera	1-1 D	1-0 W
BFA Vilnius	1-0 W	3-0 W
FK Babrungas	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Siauliai II

LLLLLLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	12	3	L
08/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
02/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
25/07	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	11	4	L
19/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
01/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	1	1	L
27/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
21/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-5	5	2	L
14/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	7	5	L

FK Minija

LDWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
08/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
31/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
28/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
18/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
20/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
07/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
29/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Siauliai II vs FK Minija?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Minija win (77%). Probabilities: FK Siauliai II 7%, draw 16%, FK Minija 77%.

How many goals are expected in FK Siauliai II vs FK Minija?

The model expects 2.83 goals (FK Siauliai II 0.53 · FK Minija 2.29), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Siauliai II vs FK Minija?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.