Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 29/08, 12:00

Prediction: FK Garliava vs FK Babrungas

Team pages: FK Garliava · FK Babrungas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

FK Garliava0.61

FK Babrungas1.37

1X2

17% 27% 56%

FK Garliava Draw FK Babrungas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-1 18%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Garliava 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLLLL

FK Babrungas 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWLWD

Head-to-head

FK Garliava 1–5 FK Babrungas (6 last)

FK Babrungas1-0FK Garliava
FK Babrungas5-0FK Garliava
FK Garliava1-2FK Babrungas
FK Garliava3-4FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas3-2FK Garliava
FK Garliava2-0FK Babrungas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Garliava 1412 · FK Babrungas 1593

	FK Garliava	Draw	FK Babrungas
Our model	15%	30%	54%
Market	19%	24%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Babrungas (rating 1412 vs 1593).
H2H favours FK Babrungas: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Garliava	FK Babrungas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.4 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.6	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.80

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:07 +14’	4.75	3.80	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Garliava 1–0–5 FK Babrungas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Garliava
26/07/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	5-0 HT 2-0	FK Garliava
13/04/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
29/07/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	3-4 HT 1-0	FK Babrungas
10/03/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	3-2 HT 3-0	FK Garliava
01/10/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Babrungas

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	21	16	4	1	37	7	52
2	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
3	FK Tauras	21	12	3	6	37	23	39
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	21	12	2	7	27	26	38
5	FK BE1	20	12	2	6	33	24	38
6	DFK Dainava	20	10	6	4	33	19	36
7	BFA Vilnius	21	11	2	8	31	29	35
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	21	10	4	7	35	31	34
9	FK Atmosfera	20	7	5	8	30	25	26
10	Lietava Jonava	21	6	5	10	24	27	23
11	FK Garliava	20	6	4	10	23	22	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	21	6	1	14	24	47	19
13	FK Transinvest II	21	5	3	13	23	50	18
14	FK Siauliai II	21	3	5	13	19	45	14
15	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
16	FK Ekranas	21	3	2	16	21	45	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Garliava	FK Babrungas
FK BE1	0-2 L	1-0 W
FK Tauras	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Hegelmann II	1-3 L	1-0 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-1 L	4-0 W
FK Transinvest II	3-0 W	1-0 W
DFK Dainava	0-1 L	1-2 L
FK Siauliai II	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Babrungas (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Garliava

DLLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
15/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	4	5	L
01/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
26/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
19/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
13/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
08/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
29/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D

FK Babrungas

WWDWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
15/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
08/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
03/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
19/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
27/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
24/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
19/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
12/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Garliava vs FK Babrungas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Babrungas win (56%). Probabilities: FK Garliava 17%, draw 27%, FK Babrungas 56%.

How many goals are expected in FK Garliava vs FK Babrungas?

The model expects 1.98 goals (FK Garliava 0.61 · FK Babrungas 1.37), with a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Garliava vs FK Babrungas?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.