Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 07/09, 19:00

Prediction: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Team pages: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II · FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1.34

FK Neptunas Klaipeda1.57

1X2

32% 26% 42%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Draw FK Neptunas Klaipeda

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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FK Neptunas Klaipeda 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 0–2–4 FK Neptunas Klaipeda (6 last)

FK Neptunas Klaipeda2-1FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II3-3FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda2-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1-4FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda2-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Neptunas Klaipeda2-2FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1561 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1535

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	Draw	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Our model	32%	27%	42%
Market	32%	25%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.8	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:34 +9’	2.55	3.50	2.25
03:02 +1’	2.75▲	3.50	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 0–2–4 FK Neptunas Klaipeda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-1 HT 0-1	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
03/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	3-3 HT 1-2	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
29/03/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-0 HT 2-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
16/09/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-4 HT 1-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
21/04/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
10/07/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-2 HT 1-1	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	22	19	1	2	58	12	58
2	FK Babrungas	23	17	4	2	39	9	55
3	FK BE1	22	14	2	6	39	24	44
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	22	13	2	7	30	27	41
5	FK Tauras	23	12	4	7	40	28	40
6	BFA Vilnius	23	12	3	8	35	32	39
7	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	22	11	4	7	36	31	37
8	DFK Dainava	22	10	7	5	33	20	37
9	FK Atmosfera	22	8	5	9	34	29	29
10	Lietava Jonava	23	7	6	10	26	28	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	23	7	1	15	29	51	22
12	FK Garliava	22	6	4	12	23	24	22
13	FK Transinvest II	23	5	3	15	24	55	18
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	22	5	1	16	18	35	16
15	FK Ekranas	23	4	2	17	22	50	14
16	FK Siauliai II	23	3	5	15	21	52	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
DFK Dainava	1-0 W	0-1 L
FK Transinvest II	4-3 W	2-2 D
FK Siauliai II	4-1 W	2-1 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
25/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	4-3	5	7	W
14/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
10/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
28/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	11	1	W
02/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-1	10	4	W
26/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
21/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	4	L

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	10	5	L
15/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
08/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
01/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
25/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
27/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
18/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
10/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Neptunas Klaipeda win (42%). Probabilities: FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 32%, draw 26%, FK Neptunas Klaipeda 42%.

How many goals are expected in FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

The model expects 2.91 goals (FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1.34 · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1.57), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Zalgiris Vilnius II vs FK Neptunas Klaipeda?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.