Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 05/09, 13:00

Prediction: FK Minija vs FK Transinvest II

Team pages: FK Minija · FK Transinvest II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

FK Minija3.06

FK Transinvest II1.06

1X2

80% 12% 8%

FK Minija Draw FK Transinvest II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Minija 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWWWW

FK Transinvest II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLLWLL

Head-to-head

FK Minija 1–0 FK Transinvest II (1 last)

FK Transinvest II1-7FK Minija

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Minija 1623 · FK Transinvest II 1427

	FK Minija	Draw	FK Transinvest II
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	84%	10%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1623 vs 1427).
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Minija	FK Transinvest II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.3	1.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 7.9	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.11

X9.00

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.75)2.00

2 (+2.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.11 → 1.11	Bet365 1.11
X	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:45 +3’	1.11	9.00	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Minija 1–0–0 FK Transinvest II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Transinvest II	1-7 HT 1-1	FK Minija

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	22	17	4	1	38	7	55
2	FK Minija	21	18	1	2	55	12	55
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	22	13	2	7	30	27	41
4	FK BE1	21	13	2	6	38	24	41
5	FK Tauras	22	12	4	6	39	25	40
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	22	11	4	7	36	31	37
7	DFK Dainava	21	10	6	5	33	20	36
8	BFA Vilnius	22	11	3	8	33	31	36
9	FK Atmosfera	21	7	5	9	31	28	26
10	Lietava Jonava	22	7	5	10	26	28	26
11	FK Garliava	21	6	4	11	23	23	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	22	6	1	15	24	50	19
13	FK Transinvest II	22	5	3	14	24	52	18
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	21	5	1	15	18	34	16
15	FK Siauliai II	22	3	5	14	20	47	14
16	FK Ekranas	22	3	2	17	21	50	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Minija	FK Transinvest II
FK Siauliai II	2-1 W	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 L	3-4 L
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	1-2 L
FK Garliava	1-0 W	0-3 L
FK Atmosfera	1-0 W	2-0 W
BFA Vilnius	3-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Minija

DWWWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	9	8	W
14/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
08/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
31/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
28/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
18/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
20/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
07/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D

FK Transinvest II

WLLDLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
25/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-3	3-4	9	7	L
14/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
08/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	2-4	3	5	L
03/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
28/07	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-3	3	2	L
20/07	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
27/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
19/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
14/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Minija vs FK Transinvest II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Minija win (80%). Probabilities: FK Minija 80%, draw 12%, FK Transinvest II 8%.

How many goals are expected in FK Minija vs FK Transinvest II?

The model expects 4.11 goals (FK Minija 3.06 · FK Transinvest II 1.06), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Minija vs FK Transinvest II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.