Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 04/09, 19:00

Prediction: BFA Vilnius vs FK Babrungas

Team pages: BFA Vilnius · FK Babrungas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

BFA Vilnius0.98

FK Babrungas1.31

1X2

28% 28% 44%

BFA Vilnius Draw FK Babrungas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

BFA Vilnius 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLWDWD

FK Babrungas 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWLWDW

Head-to-head

BFA Vilnius 3–3 FK Babrungas (6 last)

FK Babrungas4-0BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius1-0FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas3-1BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius3-2FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas3-1BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius3-2FK Babrungas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFA Vilnius 1531 · FK Babrungas 1588

	BFA Vilnius	Draw	FK Babrungas
Our model	27%	31%	43%
Market	29%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Babrungas (rating 1531 vs 1588).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFA Vilnius	FK Babrungas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	1.4 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.7	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.40

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +7’	3.10	3.40	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BFA Vilnius 3–0–3 FK Babrungas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	4-0 HT 0-0	BFA Vilnius
28/04/26 Lithuania Cup	BFA Vilnius	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Babrungas
04/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	3-1 HT 2-1	BFA Vilnius
31/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	3-2 HT 1-2	FK Babrungas
23/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	3-1 HT 1-0	BFA Vilnius
30/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	3-2 HT 1-1	FK Babrungas

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	22	17	4	1	38	7	55
2	FK Minija	21	18	1	2	55	12	55
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	22	13	2	7	30	27	41
4	FK BE1	21	13	2	6	38	24	41
5	FK Tauras	22	12	4	6	39	25	40
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	22	11	4	7	36	31	37
7	DFK Dainava	21	10	6	5	33	20	36
8	BFA Vilnius	22	11	3	8	33	31	36
9	FK Atmosfera	21	7	5	9	31	28	26
10	Lietava Jonava	22	7	5	10	26	28	26
11	FK Garliava	21	6	4	11	23	23	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	22	6	1	15	24	50	19
13	FK Transinvest II	22	5	3	14	24	52	18
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	21	5	1	15	18	34	16
15	FK Siauliai II	22	3	5	14	20	47	14
16	FK Ekranas	22	3	2	17	21	50	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFA Vilnius	FK Babrungas
FK Tauras	2-2 D	1-1 D
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-0 W	4-0 W
DFK Dainava	0-0 D	1-2 L
FK Transinvest II	4-2 W	1-0 W
FK Siauliai II	0-1 L	1-0 W
FK BE1	3-1 W	1-0 W
FK Ekranas	4-1 W	2-0 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: BFA Vilnius (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BFA Vilnius

LWWWWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
15/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
08/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-2	8	5	W
02/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
26/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
19/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
02/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
28/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
20/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	10	5	L

FK Babrungas

WDWWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
15/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
08/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
03/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
19/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
27/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
24/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
19/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFA Vilnius vs FK Babrungas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Babrungas win (44%). Probabilities: BFA Vilnius 28%, draw 28%, FK Babrungas 44%.

How many goals are expected in BFA Vilnius vs FK Babrungas?

The model expects 2.29 goals (BFA Vilnius 0.98 · FK Babrungas 1.31), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in BFA Vilnius vs FK Babrungas?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.